Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers: match statistics

Shamrock Rovers appear to be the favorites; this season they have 7 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss compared to Derry City’s 3 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses, and in the last 5 matches the visitors average 2.0 points per game versus 1.2 for the home side. Shamrock’s defense is more stable — away they concede 1.00 goal on average and have 50% clean sheets, while Derry at home concede 1.67 goals and have yet to record a clean sheet (0%). On the other hand Derry generate more high-quality chances: at home they have average xG 2.04, 16.67 shots and 6.83 on target per game, which translates to 1.83 goals per game and 11% shot efficiency, versus Shamrock away with xG 1.46, 12.83 shots, 4.0 on target and 1.33 goals (10% efficiency). Given the better points form, greater number of wins (7 vs 3) and the visitors’ defensive edge, I forecast a Shamrock win, although Derry’s high xG and number of shots on target suggest the match could be close.

I back BTTS (Both Teams to Score) at 70% vs 30% because recent form strongly favors goals from both sides: Derry and Shamrock each have 80% BTTS in their last 5 matches. This season Derry at home averages 1.83 goals scored and concedes 0.67 per match, while Shamrock as away side scores 1.33 and concedes 1.00, indicating both teams possess scoring capability (Derry 16 goals, Shamrock 19 goals this season). xG also supports this scenario — xG for Derry is 1.42 versus 1.46 for Shamrock, but in the last 5 matches Shamrock generated an average xG of 1.75 vs 1.25 for Derry, with Derry’s xG against at 1.58 in this period, suggesting a higher risk of conceding. Derry registers 5.17 shots on target at home versus Shamrock’s 4.0 and has a higher conversion rate 15% vs 10%, while the league average is 2.59 goals per match (league BTTS 53%), so statistically there is a solid basis for goals from both teams.

Derry City averages 1.83 goals at home with an xG of 1.42, while Shamrock Rovers average 1.33 goals away with an xG of 1.46; the home team concedes 0.67 goals per home match, the visitors 1.00. Seasonal percentages of matches over 1.5 are 83% for Derry and 67% for Shamrock, which strongly supports Over 1.5 — I assess its probability at 82%. Over 2.5 is less convincing based on the season (33% vs 33%), although in the last 5 matches the rates increased to 80% for the hosts and 60% for the visitors; therefore I give Over 2.5 a 48% probability. Over 3.5 is unlikely: seasonal values are 17% (Derry) and 33% (Shamrock), and the percentage of matches in which teams scored 3+ goals is 0% for both sides, so I rate Over 3.5 at 22%. The model predicts about 1.33 goals for Derry and 1.18 for Shamrock (total 2.51), which is clearly above the 1.5 line and confirms Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Half-Time statistics favor Derry City: the hosts led at the break in 4 of their matches (67%), averaging 1.0 goal by half-time and conceding only 0.17, with 83% clean sheets at the interval. Over the full 90 minutes Derry win 83% of home matches and have a seasonal goals-per-game average of 1.83 versus Shamrock Rovers’ 1.33, which increases the likelihood of maintaining the lead and securing victory. Although xG shows 1.42 for the hosts versus 1.46 for the visitors, and Shamrock Rovers have won 3 of their last 5 matches (60%), the visitors’ lower shot conversion (10% vs 15%) and fewer shots on target (4.0 vs 5.17) limit their chances of a second-half turnaround. Therefore the most likely scenario is Derry leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT 1/1 44%), with smaller probabilities for draw-related outcomes (1/X 12%, X/X 13%) and a negligible probability of the hosts losing after leading (1/2 3%).