Derry City vs Waterford: match statistics

Derry City are the clear favorites in this matchup, supported by a significant advantage in possession (60% vs 41%) and in shots on target per game (5.75 vs 3.55). Defensively the hosts are superior: Derry concede on average 1.00 goal per home game with a 33% clean sheet rate, whereas Waterford concede 2.73 goals on the road and have no clean sheets (CS% 0%). In attack both teams have similar season goal totals (30 Derry vs 28 Waterford), and in the last 5 matches the visitors scored 11 goals versus 9 for the hosts, but xG favors Derry (xG 1.83 vs 1.39) with a lower xG against (0.91 vs 2.18). Additionally, Derry average 15.25 shots per home match with a 10% conversion rate and have a lower share of games without scoring (FTS 25% vs 36% for Waterford), while Waterford suffer 73% losses away and have a negative goal difference of -16. In light of these figures I tip the home win; I estimate probabilities at approximately 65% for Derry, 20% for a draw and 15% for Waterford.

Both teams have high BTTS figures this season: Derry City 55% and Waterford 64%, versus a league BTTS average of 59%. In the last 5 matches Derry City had BTTS in 4 of 5 (80%), and Waterford in 3 of 5 (60%), with goals for/against averages over those five games: Derry 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, Waterford 2.2 scored and 1.8 conceded. Defensively Waterford performs poorly — they concede 2.73 goals per game on average and have zero clean sheets this season (0%), while Derry concedes 1.27 goals per game and has 18% of matches as clean sheets; this increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. The situational model confirms this offensively: xG is 1.32 for Derry and 1.39 for Waterford, with xG against 1.86 and 2.18, and average shots per game 11.91 vs 13.18 and shots on target 3.82 vs 3.55, suggesting genuine chances from both sides. Considering the seasonal 55%/64%, recent 80%/60%, Waterford’s lack of clean sheets (0%) and high goals conceded rate 2.73, the BTTS — Yes bet looks clearly stronger; I rate it 78% versus 22% for No.

For estimating expected goals I used a combination of the team’s attacking xG and the opponent’s xG against: Derry’s attacking xG is 1.32 and Waterford’s xG conceded is 2.18, giving an average of 1.75 expected goals for the home side; similarly Waterford’s attacking xG 1.39 and xG conceded to Derry 1.86 yield 1.62 for the away side, totaling 3.37. That 3.37 goal total is clearly above the league average of 2.75 and consistent with the last 5 matches, where Derry averaged 1.54 xG and 1.8 goals scored, and Waterford 1.64 xG and 2.2 goals scored. Season metrics also support a high-scoring outcome: Derry went over 1.5 goals in 82% of matches, Waterford in 91%, while Waterford concedes on average 2.73 goals per game. Additionally, both teams frequently score: 55% of Derry’s matches and 64% of Waterford’s matches featured goals from both sides, and in the last 5 matches Derry had BTTS in 80% of appearances. Based on this the model gives roughly 85% for Over 1.5, about 66% for Over 2.5 and around 44% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal from the data is a bet on Over 1.5.

Derry have strong second halves: the hosts score on average 1.00 goals after the break and concede 0.45, whereas Waterford score only 0.45 and concede 1.55 after the break. This translates into points and outcomes — Derry collected 21 points in second halves (an average of 1.91 points per match), while Waterford managed only 5 points (0.45 on average), demonstrating the hosts’ ability to stage comebacks. However, Waterford are the favorites to be leading at the break: the visitors average 0.82 goals by half-time versus Derry’s 0.27, and Derry were leading at half-time in only 1 of 11 matches (9%), while trailing in 7 of 11 (64%). Given these figures (Waterford frequently lead at the break, Derry respond strongly after the break), the most likely scenario is Waterford to lead at half-time with Derry winning after full-time — HT/FT 2/1.