Desenzano Calvina vs Dolomiti Bellunesi: match statistics

Dolomiti Bellunesi have the edge away from home: they have won 2 of 4 matches and are yet to lose, while Desenzano Calvina are still without a home win after 3 appearances. The visitors average 1.25 goals per away match, compared with the hosts’ 0.33 goals at home, and need fewer attempts to find the net: their shot conversion rate is 16% versus 3%. The defensive numbers also marginally favour the visitors, who concede an average of 0.75 goals away from home, compared with 1 goal conceded by the hosts on their own ground. However, the advantage is not decisive, as Desenzano’s home xG stands at 1.33 against Dolomiti’s away xG of 1.07, and the hosts have won 2 of their last 5 matches, while the visitors have not won any. With the hosts drawing 2 of their 3 home matches and the visitors drawing 2 of their 4 away games, a share of the points remains a realistic outcome, but Dolomiti’s superior finishing tips the forecast in their favour.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Desenzano Calvina’s scoring record: the hosts average 0.5 goals per match and have failed to score in 50% of their games. Dolomiti Bellunesi concede an average of 0.75 goals, although they allow opponents chances worth 2.03 xG per match, so a home goal remains a realistic possibility. The visitors average 1.25 goals, but their average has fallen to 0.6 over their last 5 matches, which also reduces confidence in them finding the net. BTTS - Yes is supported by both teams scoring in 50% of the hosts’ matches and 75% of the visitors’ matches. However, both sides’ poor attacking output gives a slight edge to the scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in any of the matches played by either team so far, while the league average is 2.28 goals. Desenzano score an average of 0.5 goals, compared with 1.25 for Dolomiti Bellunesi, which also points away from a high-scoring game. In their last five matches, the home side averaged 1.0 goals and the visitors 0.6; both teams conceded 1.0 goal per game over that period. However, caution is warranted, as opponents' average xG against both sides is high—1.63 against Desenzano and 2.03 against Dolomiti—so I estimate 2.22 goals in total and see a stronger case for Under 3.5 than Under 2.5.

A draw at half-time is the strongest signal: the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their 4 home matches, while the visitors were level at half-time in all 4 of their away matches. Desenzano Calvina’s case for winning after the break is supported by their more recent form: over their last 5 matches, they averaged 1.6 points compared with Dolomiti Bellunesi’s 0.6. Over the same period, the hosts scored an average of 0.8 goals after half-time, while the visitors scored just 0.2 and conceded 0.8. In addition, the hosts generate 1.35 xG at home, while their opponents’ away xG stands at 1.07, supporting the scenario of Desenzano breaking the deadlock. However, the X/1 pick is not a strong one: the visitors have yet to lose in their 4 away matches and have averaged 2 points, so a draw and an away win following a goalless first half remain viable alternatives.