Detroit City FC vs Louisville City: match statistics
Detroit City FC vs Louisville City: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Detroit City FC played Louisville City in USL Championship (United States). The match was played on 2 May 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Detroit City FC: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Louisville City: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Detroit City FC scores 1.17 and concedes 0.67 goals per match. Louisville City scores 2.14 and concedes 1.29. League average: 2.65 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Detroit City FC 33%, Louisville City 57%. Over 2.5: Detroit City FC 50%, Louisville City 57%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Louisville City has higher xG: 1.98 vs 1.65. Detroit City FC: 14.8 shots per match, Louisville City: 16.7.
Match halves
Detroit City FC: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.67. Louisville City: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 1.29.
Goals by minute
Detroit City FC: 0-15 (2 goals). Louisville City: 16-30 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL Championship: 2.65 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 6 previous H2H matches were available: 3-0-3. Average goals 2.33, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Louisville holds the offensive edge: 15 goals this season (2.0 away goals per game) and 10 goals in the last 5 matches, while Detroit has 7 goals for the season and only 4 in their last five. Visitors produce higher xG and better shot conversion — Louisville’s away xG is 1.82 versus Detroit’s home 1.68, with conversion at 14% compared to the hosts’ 11%. Conversely, Detroit boasts an impressive home defense: 0.00 goals conceded per match and 100% clean sheets at home with xG against of only 0.77, indicating significant difficulty for opponents in attack. Form supports the visitors (2.0 points per game in the last 5) over the hosts (1.4 points), although the hosts have a home winning run (form run 'www'). Considering Louisville’s superior shooting efficiency and better xG against Detroit’s very compact defense, I expect a narrow away win with a low scoreline.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal for BTTS comes from Louisville: their seasonal BTTS rate is 67%, and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Detroit is 50% for the season and 40% in the last 5. Both teams regularly score and concede — Detroit averages 2.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game, Louisville averages 2.0 scored and 1.33 conceded — which increases the likelihood of goals on both sides. Looking at xG and chance metrics, Detroit has offensive xG 2.11 with xG against 0.79 and generates 18.25 shots and 6.0 shots on target per match, whereas Louisville has offensive xG 1.82, 14.67 shots and 4.33 shots on target; Louisville is however more efficient (conversion 14% vs 12%), so with fewer chances they still pose a scoring threat. Clean sheets are uncommon: Detroit 25% and Louisville 33%, and in the last 5 matches Louisville scored 10 and conceded 7 goals (Detroit 4 scored and 4 conceded), which further confirms a tendency to both-teams-score games. Considering the dominant BTTS signal from Louisville, high shooting averages for both sides and low clean sheet rates, I would price BTTS at 75% vs 25% and back 'Yes' (BTTS - Yes).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG model projects 1.68 expected goals for Detroit (attacking xG 2.11 vs. average xG conceded 1.24) and 1.30 for Louisville (attacking xG 1.82 vs. average xG conceded 0.79), totaling 2.98 goals. Season metrics confirm offensive activity: Detroit averages 2.25 goals with 18.25 shots and 6.0 shots on target (conversion 12%), Louisville averages 2.00 goals with 14.67 shots and 4.33 shots on target (conversion 14%). Both teams have high shares of matches over thresholds: over 1.5 – 75% for Detroit and 67% for Louisville; over 2.5 – 50% and 67% respectively. In the last 5 games Louisville scored 10 goals (2.0 avg) versus Detroit’s 4 goals (0.8 avg), which further fuels goal potential. From a Poisson distribution with λ=2.98 the probabilities are approximately: over 1.5 ≈80%, over 2.5 ≈57%, and over 3.5 ≈35%, therefore the strongest signal from the data is backing over 1.5 (line 1.5, over).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest first-half signal indicates a draw: the home team were level at the break in 50% of matches, while the visitors were level at the break in 67%, with the home side leading at the break in only 25%. For full-time the home team are the favorites — their average xG is 2.11 versus the visitors’ 1.82, and their xG against is 0.79 versus 1.24, which suggests superior chance-creation and better defense. Additionally, Detroit average 18.25 shots and 6.0 on target per match compared to Louisville’s 14.67 and 4.33; combined with the higher xG this favors a home win after 90 minutes, despite a shot-to-goal conversion rate of 12% versus 14%. Considering that the home side average 1.25 points at half-time versus 0.67 for the visitors and lead at the break in 25% of matches while the visitors do so in 0%, the half-time draw with a home win at full-time (X/1) is most consistent with the data. Therefore I assign X/1 the highest probability (36%), while also allocating a significant share to half-time draw/full-time draw (X/X 20%) and to the home holding the lead from the first half through full-time (1/1 15%); scenarios with the visitors leading at half-time are judged unlikely.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Detroit City FC | Louisville City | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 28% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Louisville City is 43% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Detroit City FC · 2 pts / match - Louisville City
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Louisville City is 83% better for: goals scored per match.
1.17 goals / match - Detroit City FC · 2.14 goals / match - Louisville City
Detroit City FC is 93% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.67 goals / match - Detroit City FC · 1.29 goals / match - Louisville City
Detroit City FC scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while Louisville City keeps a clean sheet in 29% (2 of 7 matches).
Louisville City scores in 86% of matches (6 of 7 matches), while Detroit City FC keeps a clean sheet in 67% (4 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Detroit City FC
Over / Under - Louisville City
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Detroit City FC is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / match - Detroit City FC · 1 pts / match - Louisville City
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Detroit City FC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Louisville City - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 71%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Detroit City FC
Louisville City
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL Championship).
Teams vs league
| Detroit City FC | Liga | Louisville City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.83 | 2.65 | ▲ 3.43 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 53% | ▲ 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 52% | ▲ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 67% | 29% | • 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 67% | 65% | ▲ 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 80% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (6): Detroit City FC 3 - 0 - 3 Louisville City. Average goals 2.33, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Detroit City FC vs Louisville City?
The USL Championship match finished Detroit City FC 2:1 Louisville City. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Detroit City FC and Louisville City?
In the last 6 head-to-head matches Detroit City FC won 3, Louisville City won 3 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Detroit City FC vs Louisville City?
Detroit City FC score 1.17 goals per game on average and Louisville City 2.14. The USL Championship average is 2.65 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Detroit City FC's matches and 57% of Louisville City's.
What form are Detroit City FC and Louisville City in?
Over the last 5 games Detroit City FC have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Louisville City 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Detroit City FC vs Louisville City?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Detroit City FC vs Louisville City: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.