Dewa United vs Bhayangkara: match statistics

Dewa United have a slight advantage thanks to their higher position in the table, sitting 4th compared with Bhayangkara in 7th, as well as winning the only league meeting played so far. In their last five matches, the hosts recorded 3 victories and scored 7 goals while conceding just 2, producing a very solid average of 0.4 goals conceded per match. Bhayangkara scored as many as 13 goals over the same period, but their defense allowed 8 goals, and the team won only 2 of their 5 matches. The hosts also averaged 1.8 points per game in their last five appearances, compared with 1.4 points for the visitors. Bhayangkara’s attacking potential increases the risk of a draw, but Dewa United’s greater defensive stability points to a home win.

The signal for BTTS - Yes is moderately positive, as Bhayangkara have averaged 2.6 goals scored across their last 5 matches, while Dewa United have averaged 1.4. The visitors have also conceded 1.6 goals per game and allowed 8 goals during this period, which clearly strengthens the hosts’ chances of scoring. Dewa United have a solid recent xG of 1.59, while Bhayangkara stand at 1.70, indicating that both teams regularly create scoring opportunities. The main argument against the pick is Dewa United’s strong defensive record: they have conceded only 2 goals in their last five matches. Therefore, the BTTS edge over the scenario in which at least one team fails to score remains limited. Nevertheless, 80% of Bhayangkara’s last five matches saw both teams score, compared with the league average of 56%, which justifies selecting “Yes”.

Dewa United have averaged 1.4 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded over their last 5 matches, while their average xG during this period stands at 1.59, indicating consistent chance creation. Bhayangkara have a much more open profile: they average 2.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with at least 3 goals scored in 4 of their last 5 matches. The visitors generate an average of 1.70 xG, while Dewa allow opponents 1.25 xG, meaning Bhayangkara should also pose a genuine attacking threat. At the same time, the league-wide average is only 2.33 goals, and Dewa have gone Over 2.5 goals in just 20% of their last five matches, making higher lines considerably less reliable. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.75 goals and Bhayangkara’s attacking record give a high probability of at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is Dewa United leading at the break and securing the win, as the hosts were ahead at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Bhayangkara were trailing at that stage in 3 of 5 games. During this period, Dewa United conceded just 0.2 goals before the break and 0.4 goals per match overall, whereas the visitors conceded an average of 1.0 goal in the first halves. The hosts won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.4 goals, while their home xG stands at 1.29, with just 0.73 xG conceded to opponents. Bhayangkara are dangerous after the break, averaging 1.8 goals in second halves, but their 1.6 goals conceded per match and 60% rate of half-time defeats point more towards a controlled home win than a turnaround.