Dewa United vs Persija: match statistics

Dewa United are slight favourites thanks to the quality of the chances they create at home: the hosts average 2.15 xG, compared with Persija’s 1.21 away from home. Dewa United average 16.33 shots per home game, including 7 on target, and score 2 goals per match, giving them a solid platform to break down their opponents’ defence. Persija nevertheless remain dangerous: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and average 2.33 goals away from home despite taking just 8 shots per game. The visitors have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their away matches, but Dewa United are still unbeaten at home, winning 67% of their matches there. The hosts’ advantage in both the number and quality of chances points to a home win, though Persija’s efficiency should make this a closely fought contest.

BTTS landed in 67% of Dewa United’s home matches and 33% of Persija’s away matches, although the figure was 60% for both teams across their last five games. Both teams scored in every match in the home and away samples considered, with averages of 2.67 and 2.33 goals respectively. Persija could breach the hosts’ defence, which has conceded an average of 1.6 goals over the last five matches, while the visitors have averaged 2.8 goals scored. The strongest argument against BTTS - Yes is that Persija kept a clean sheet in 67% of their away matches and limited opponents to just 0.80 xG on average. Even so, Dewa United’s attack generates an average xG of 1.71 at home, making both teams to score slightly more likely. A BTTS - No selection means at least one team fails to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw.

In their last 5 matches, Dewa United averaged 1.8 goals and Persija 2.8; for both teams, 80% of those games finished with at least three goals. The hosts average 14 shots, including 6.67 on target, while their xG of 1.71 points to a consistent ability to create chances. Persija also have a potent attack, but their average xG of 1.21 and the 0.8 xG they concede defensively support a more cautious forecast than the results alone might suggest. An estimated total of 3.2 goals gives the strongest edge to Over 1.5 goals, although the probability of Over 2.5 goals is also elevated.

Dewa United have led at half-time and won all three of their home matches so far, making a home lead at the break that is maintained until full-time the single most likely scenario. In the first halves of those matches, the hosts scored an average of 1.33 goals and conceded none, while Persija were level at half-time in two of their three away matches. Dewa are also backed by a higher number of shots on target at home than Persija have managed away — 6.67 compared with 3.67 per match — as well as a higher xG, 1.71 compared with 1.21. The pick is not without risk, however: Persija have won four of their last five matches overall and scored an average of 1.8 goals after the break in those games, so a turnaround remains a realistic possibility. Even so, Dewa’s advantage in their home matches to date, both at half-time and at full-time, provides the strongest case for the 1/1 pick.