Dila vs Gagra: match statistics

Dila sit higher in the table and have scored 10 goals and collected 10 points in their last five matches, while Gagra have scored just 5 goals and picked up 6 points. The home advantage is supported by their home statistics: they average 1.42 goals with an xG of 1.43, whereas the visitors manage only 0.91 goals and 1.13 xG away from home. Dila also create more danger, averaging 11.08 shots and 4.08 shots on target per match, compared with Gagra’s 8.64 and 2.82. Gagra’s defence looks vulnerable on the road, conceding 1.45 goals per match, allowing chances worth an average of 1.66 xG, and keeping a clean sheet in just 9% of matches. Gagra frequently draw away from home, with 36% of their away matches ending level, but Dila’s superior recent scoring form and their advantage in chance quality make them the more convincing pick.

The seasonal percentage of matches in which both teams scored is 58% for Dila and 55% for Gagra, close to the league average of 56%. Dila are in a clearly stronger attacking rhythm: they have averaged 2.0 goals in their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 80% of them. Gagra average just 0.91 goals per season and have failed to score in 36% of their matches, which limits confidence in the pick. However, Dila concede an average of 1.17 goals, while their xG against stands at 1.57. The hosts create more chances, recording an xG of 1.49 and 4.5 shots on target per match, while Gagra allow opponents an xG of 1.66 and keep a clean sheet in only 9% of their games. The most likely scenario is therefore a Dila goal combined with at least one successful Gagra attack, although the BTTS edge is moderate.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals, as Dila’s matches have ended with at least four goals in only 8% of cases, compared with 9% for Gagra. Both teams have low season scoring averages: Dila scores 1.08 goals per match, while Gagra averages 0.91, with neither side scoring more than two goals in a single match during the analysed period. Dila should create more chances, recording 1.49 xG and 4.5 shots on target per match compared with Gagra’s 1.13 xG and 2.82 shots on target, but its projected goal tally remains close to 1.5 goals. Dila’s last five matches have been more open, averaging 2.0 goals scored and producing Over 2.5 goals in 80% of games, but the season data for both teams clearly limits the likelihood of a very high-scoring game. The estimated total of 2.50 goals supports a 1-3 goal scenario and gives the edge to the Under 3.5 goals bet.

Dila are in clearly better form: they have averaged 2.0 goals over their last five matches, won three of them, and held a lead at the break in three of those five games. Over the same period, Gagra averaged just 0.2 goals before half-time and failed to score in four of their five first halves. The hosts are creating more chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.49 compared with the visitors’ 1.13, as well as an average of 4.5 shots on target to Gagra’s 2.82. Dila also have the edge after the interval, averaging 1.2 goals in the second half across their last five appearances. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is a Dila lead at the break followed by a victory, corresponding to 1/1.