Dila vs Rustavi: match statistics

Dila holds a clear advantage in chance creation at home: home xG averages 1.56 versus Rustavi’s 1.08 xG on the road, with total shots 12 vs 7.5 and shots on target 5 vs 3; despite similar finishing rates (6% vs 7%), the higher volume of attempts favors Dila. Defensively the hosts also perform better locally — Dila concedes 0.67 goals per home match on average, while Rustavi concedes 1.0 goals per away match. Rustavi are yet to register an away win (0% wins) and have kept no goals in 50% of their away fixtures, whereas Dila fail to score at home in only 33% of matches, which increases the hosts’ prospects. Both teams show comparable recent form (2 wins in the last 5 matches and an average of 1.4 points per game in that period), so the outcome should be decided by Dila’s superior chance quality and defense. On that basis I tip a home win and propose probability distribution: home 60%, draw 25%, away 15%.

Dila averages 1.67 goals scored and concedes only 0.67 per match this season, keeping a clean sheet in 67% of games, which strongly favors No BTTS. The home side generate xG of 1.46 versus Rustavi's 1.08, but the opponent only averages 0.5 goals and has a very low shot conversion of 7%, so chances are not converting into goals. League statistics show 78% clean sheets and BTTS at 44%, and in the last 5 matches of both teams BTTS occurred in only 40%, further arguing against Goal/Goal. Considering Dila's defensive edge, the conversion gap (Dila 14% vs Rustavi 7%) and the fact that in the last 5 matches Rustavi records 1.2 goals vs Dila's 0.8, I tip No Goal with a probability of 70% vs 30% for BTTS - Yes.

Combining xG and defensive data shows: Dila has xG_for 1.46, Rustavi xG_for 1.08, while xG_against are 1.29 (Dila) and 1.47 (Rustavi); averaging these pairs yields expected goals for home ~1.47 and away ~1.19, total ~2.66. A Poisson estimate with lambda=2.66 indicates roughly a 75% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and about 50% chance of at least 3 goals (Over 2.5), which partially aligns with seasonal rates: Dila has 67% of matches over 1.5 and 67% over 2.5, Rustavi 50% and 50%. Additionally, Dila records 67% clean sheets at home and concedes on average 0.67 goals, which limits the risk of a very high-scoring game, while both teams have 0% of matches over 3.5 this season. The home side averages 11.67 shots and 4.67 on target with a 14% conversion, and the visitors 7.5 shots and 3 on target with a 7% conversion, increasing the likelihood of goals coming from Dila’s initiative. As a result I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (estimate ~75%), a moderate Over 2.5 (~52%) and low potential for Over 3.5 (~20%); expected goals 1.47 for Dila and 1.19 for Rustavi (total 2.66).

Dila holds a clear statistical advantage: their seasonal home goals average is 1.67 versus 0.5 for Rustavi, and points per game are 2.0 versus 0.5, with 67% home wins and 0% away wins. At half-time Dila led in 67% of home matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 67.0) and did not concede before the break (concededAVGHT_home = 0.0), which strongly supports HT = 1. The home side creates more quality chances: xG 1.46 vs 1.08, 4.67 shots on target vs 3.0 and conversion 14% vs 7%, so they are more likely to maintain or extend the lead after the break. Rustavi average only 0.5 goals per game and have 50% draws (drawPercentage_away = 50.0), so draw scenarios are possible but less likely than a home win. On this basis I select 1/1 as the strongest signal (54%), with alternatives X/1 (20%) and 1/X (10%); I rate an away victory low (1/2 and X/2 at 3% each).