Dinamo Batumi vs Dinamo Tbilisi: match statistics

Dinamo Batumi have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 11 goals in the process, while Dinamo Tbilisi have recorded 3 wins and scored 10 goals. The hosts win 62% of their home matches and average 2 goals per game, giving them a slight edge over the visitors, who win 54% of their away matches and average 1.85 goals. Tbilisi remain a threat, however: away from home they average 5.23 shots on target, compared with Batumi’s 4.38 at home, and their xG stands at 1.71 against the hosts’ 1.47. The visitors concede an average of 1.08 goals away from home, while the hosts concede 1.38 at home, so the league leaders’ defence could limit Batumi’s advantage. I’m backing the hosts on the strength of their home form and recent results, but Tbilisi’s 38% away draw rate makes a share of the points a realistic outcome.

BTTS occurred in 77% of Dinamo Tbilisi matches and 50% of Dinamo Batumi matches, giving a moderate edge to the scenario in which both teams score. The teams create a similar number of chances: their average xG is 1.72 and 1.71, and they average 5.0 and 5.23 shots on target per match, respectively. Over their last five matches, Batumi scored an average of 2.2 goals and Tbilisi 2.0, giving both attacks good reason to find the net. Some caution is warranted, however: during this period, both teams conceded just 0.8 goals per match, while Batumi failed to score in 36% of its matches this season. Even so, the attacking potential of both sides and the high BTTS rate in Tbilisi matches slightly outweigh the case for at least one team to fail to score.

At least 2 goals were scored in 71% of Dinamo Batumi matches and 77% of Dinamo Tbilisi matches, providing a strong basis for backing Over 1.5 goals. The hosts average 1.5 goals per match, while the visitors average 1.85, and their average xG figures are almost identical: 1.72 and 1.71, respectively. Both teams have scored even more in their last 5 matches — Batumi averaging 2.2 goals and Tbilisi 2.0 — while each conceded just 0.8 goals. I therefore project 2.92 goals in total, but prefer the safer Over 1.5 line, with an estimated probability of 77%, compared with 59% for Over 2.5.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Dinamo Batumi were level at the break in 50% of their matches, compared with 46% for Dinamo Tbilisi; across their last five games, this occurred four and three times, respectively. After the break, the visitors show greater potential, averaging 0.92 goals in second halves against the hosts’ 0.57 and winning that period in 46% of matches compared with 28%. Their advantage over the full match is supported by an average of 1.85 goals scored per game, versus Batumi’s 1.50, and a 54% win rate compared with the hosts’ 43%. However, Batumi’s strong form—four wins in their last five matches, compared with Tbilisi’s three—must also be taken into account. A draw at half-time followed by an away win is therefore the strongest single HT/FT pick, but not a clear-cut favourite.