Dinamo Samarqand vs AGMK: match statistics
Dinamo Samarqand vs AGMK: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Dinamo Samarqand played AGMK in Uzbekistan Super League (Uzbekistan). The match was played on 23 April 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Dinamo Samarqand: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. AGMK: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Dinamo Samarqand scores 1.38 and concedes 2.00 goals per match. AGMK scores 1.25 and concedes 1.38. League average: 2.51 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Dinamo Samarqand 100%, AGMK 63%. Over 2.5: Dinamo Samarqand 88%, AGMK 50%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Dinamo Samarqand has higher xG: 1.53 vs 1.38. Dinamo Samarqand: 12.0 shots per match, AGMK: 11.1.
Match halves
Dinamo Samarqand: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.50. AGMK: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
Dinamo Samarqand: 0-15 (3 goals). AGMK: 0-15 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uzbekistan Super League: 2.51 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 0.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict an away win for AGMK. AGMK arrives in better form: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 5 matches and an average of 2.0 points per game, while Dinamo have 1 win and 4 losses and only 0.6 points per game. Dinamo create more chances at home — 11.5 shots and 5 on target with xG 1.46 — whereas AGMK away average 8.75 shots, 2 on target and xG 1.09, with similar shot efficiency (combined conversion rate 11%). The hosts’ main issue is defence: 12 goals conceded in the last 5 matches (2.4 per game), 16 goals conceded this season and 0% clean sheets at home, while AGMK have conceded 7 goals in their last 5 fixtures. Considering the clear points and form advantage for the visitors and Dinamo’s defensive vulnerability, I assign a higher probability to an AGMK victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I recommend BTTS - Yes with an 80% probability: Dinamo Samarqand has a season BTTS rate of 75% and 100% in the last 5 matches, while AGMK has 50% for the season and 80% in the last 5, which signals both teams scoring. Dinamo averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded this season (11 for, 16 against), and conceded 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 avg) with a season clean sheet expected rate of 0%, increasing the likelihood of conceding. AGMK averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.25 conceded this season, but scored 8 goals in the last 5 matches (1.6 avg) and its last5 xG_for is 1.32 vs season 1.09, so they can reply with a goal. Dinamo generates 1.67 xG, averages 13.5 shots and 4.75 on target, while AGMK has 1.09 xG and 2.0 shots on target seasonally — the difference in chances still supports goals from both sides. Considering a league BTTS level of 50% and strong recent trends of 100% vs 80%, I assess No Goal at around a 20% probability, so the 'yes' selection is the strongest.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Aggregate xG projections indicate 1.68 expected goals for Dinamo Samarqand (xG_for 1.67 vs xG_conceded by AGMK 1.68) and 1.19 for AGMK (xG_for 1.09 vs xG_conceded by hosts 1.28), yielding a total of approximately 2.87 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.87 calculates probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈78%, Over 2.5 ≈55% and Over 3.5 ≈32%. The hosts average 13.5 shots and 4.75 on target per match versus 8.75 and 2.0 for AGMK; with shot conversion around 11% this supports a higher goals tally for Dinamo. Trends confirm the direction — in the last 5 matches the hosts had 100% of games with over 2.5 goals, while BTTS in the last 5 is 100% for the hosts and 80% for the visitors; seasonally Over 2.5 is 50%/50% for both, but current form increases the probability of at least 3 goals. Based on this, I recommend the Over side on the 2.5 line as the strongest signal, grounded on the 2.87 expected goals and the hosts' clear offensive advantage.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
First-half statistics favor AGMK: in the last 5 matches the visitors led at the break in 3 of 5 (60%), hosts only in 1 of 5 (20%), and the average first-half goals in the last 5 are 2.0 for AGMK versus 1.6 for Dinamo. AGMK also shows better full-match form — 60% wins in the last 5 and an average of 2.0 points over the last 5, while Dinamo has 20% wins and 0.6 points; on the season the visitors accumulate 1.5 points per match vs 1.25 for the hosts. Dinamo, however, creates more chances (xG 1.67 vs 1.09, 13.5 shots vs 8.75 and 4.75 shots on target vs 2.0) and scores more after the break on average (0.75 goals vs 0.25 for AGMK), with the hosts having 100% of second halves featuring at least one goal. Despite Dinamo’s second-half activity, AGMK’s greater consistency in first halves and superior full-match results make the most probable scenario a lead for the visitors at the break and a visitors’ victory at full-time (2/2). The second-strongest signal is a visitors’ lead at the break and a draw at full-time (2/X) due to the hosts’ average of 0.75 goals after the break.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Dinamo Samarqand | AGMK | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
AGMK is 233% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Dinamo Samarqand · 2 pts / match - AGMK
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Dinamo Samarqand is 10% better for: goals scored per match.
1.38 goals / match - Dinamo Samarqand · 1.25 goals / match - AGMK
AGMK is 45% better for: goals conceded per match.
2 goals / match - Dinamo Samarqand · 1.38 goals / match - AGMK
Dinamo Samarqand scores in 100% of matches (8 of 8 matches), while AGMK keeps a clean sheet in 13% (1 of 8 matches).
AGMK scores in 75% of matches (6 of 8 matches), while Dinamo Samarqand keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Dinamo Samarqand
Over / Under - AGMK
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
AGMK is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / match - Dinamo Samarqand · 1.5 pts / match - AGMK
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Dinamo Samarqand - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 25%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
AGMK - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Dinamo Samarqand
AGMK
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uzbekistan Super League).
Teams vs league
| Dinamo Samarqand | Liga | AGMK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.38 | 2.51 | ▲ 2.63 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 100% | 51% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 88% | 49% | • 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 26% | ▼ 13% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 88% | 68% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 79% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Dinamo Samarqand 1 - 1 - 0 AGMK. Average goals 0.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Dinamo Samarqand vs AGMK?
The Uzbekistan Super League match finished Dinamo Samarqand 2:2 AGMK. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Samarqand and AGMK?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Dinamo Samarqand won 1, AGMK won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 0.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Dinamo Samarqand vs AGMK?
Dinamo Samarqand score 1.38 goals per game on average and AGMK 1.25. The Uzbekistan Super League average is 2.51 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 100% of Dinamo Samarqand's matches and 63% of AGMK's.
What form are Dinamo Samarqand and AGMK in?
Over the last 5 games Dinamo Samarqand have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and AGMK 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Dinamo Samarqand vs AGMK?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.