Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra: match statistics
Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Dinamo Tbilisi played Gagra in Erovnuli Liga (Georgia). The match was played on 21 April 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Dinamo Tbilisi: 0-4-1, 0.80 points/match. Gagra: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Dinamo Tbilisi scores 0.86 and concedes 0.86 goals per match. Gagra scores 1.00 and concedes 1.57. League average: 2.14 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Dinamo Tbilisi 57%, Gagra 71%. Over 2.5: Dinamo Tbilisi 43%, Gagra 57%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Dinamo Tbilisi has higher xG: 1.67 vs 1.42. Dinamo Tbilisi: 14.0 shots per match, Gagra: 11.3.
Match halves
Dinamo Tbilisi: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.14. Gagra: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.57.
Goals by minute
Dinamo Tbilisi: 0-15 (2 goals). Gagra: 31-45+ (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Erovnuli Liga: 2.14 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-2. Average goals 3.25, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Forecast: draw. Dinamo have yet to win at home (0% home wins) and as many as 75% of their home matches end in a draw; in the last 5 games they have 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss (avg. 0.8 pts per game). The hosts create more chances — average home xG 1.68 with 14 shots per game and 4.5 on target and 56% possession — yet convert to only 1.0 goal per game and concede on average 1.25 goals. Gagra score 1.33 goals on the road, have a higher conversion rate of 13% and have not had an away match without a goal (0%), although their average away xG for is 1.24 with xG against 1.58; in the last 5 matches they have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses (avg. 1.0 pt per game). Considering Dinamo’s creation advantage (1.68 xG vs 1.24 xG for Gagra), the visitors’ higher efficiency (13% vs 7%) and both teams’ strong draw tendency, a split of points is most likely (55%), with lower probabilities for a home win (25%) or an away win (20%).
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
A strong signal supporting the "Both Teams To Score" scenario is that Gagra has BTTS at 100% this season, while Dinamo Tbilisi is at 50% (60% in the last 5 matches). Both teams have 0% clean sheets this season; Dinamo concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game, Gagra 1.0, with Gagra conceding 1.8 on average in the last 5. In terms of scoring, Gagra averages 1.33 goals this season (1.2 in the last 5), while Dinamo only 0.75 (0.8 in the last 5), so Gagra is the clearer candidate to appear on the scoresheet. Dinamo averages 12.25 shots and 4.75 on target with a conversion rate of 6%, Gagra records 10.0 shots and 3.0 on target with a 13% conversion; xG is 1.56 for Dinamo and 1.24 for Gagra, and xG against is 1.49 and 1.58 respectively, showing both sides create and allow chances. Considering Gagra’s 100% BTTS, 0% clean sheets for both teams and their regular conceding, I assign the "BTTS - Yes" scenario an 85% probability versus 15% for "No Goal."
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model based on xG and form metrics values expected goals at 1.57 for Dinamo (xG_for 1.56; opponent xG_against 1.58) and 1.36 for Gagra (xG_for 1.24; opponent xG_against 1.49), totaling around 2.93 goals. Season-long indicators confirm a scoring tendency: Dinamo has Over 1.5 in 75% of matches, Gagra in 100%, and both teams have Over 0.5 in 100%, which strongly supports >1.5. In the last 5 fixtures Gagra records Over 2.5 in 80% and BTTS in 80%, Dinamo has Over 2.5 in 40% and BTTS 60%, so the risk for over 2.5 is moderate. Shot stats show Dinamo averages 12.25 shots and 4.75 on target, Gagra 10 shots and 3 on target; despite Dinamo’s lower conversion (6% vs 13%) the combined xG of both teams 2.80 (1.56+1.24) and high BTTS % suggest >3.5 is unlikely (seasonal Over 3.5: Dinamo 25%, Gagra 0%). Therefore I recommend over 1.5 as the strongest signal (forecast 90%), with moderate probability for over 2.5 (62%) and low for over 3.5 (20%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a draw at Full-Time (X/X). Both teams frequently draw in the first half: the home side had a lead at the break of draw in 50% of league matches and in 4 of their last 5 games (80%), while the visitors drew at the break in 67% of their away matches. The hosts have not yet won at home this season (0% wins), conceding on average 1.25 goals by Half-Time while scoring 0.50, whereas the visitors average 0.33 goals by Half-Time and concede 0.67, which favors balanced, low-probability halves. For Full-Time the away team records 67% draws on the road, and the hosts’ 0% home wins make an FT draw more likely than a home victory. Additionally, xG shows the hosts create slightly more (xG 1.56 vs 1.24) but convert less efficiently (6% vs 13% conversion rate), and the visitors score more frequently after the break (on average 1.33 second-half goals vs 1.0 for the hosts), therefore X/X is the strongest signal from the available data.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Dinamo Tbilisi | Gagra | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Gagra is 25% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Dinamo Tbilisi · 1 pts / match - Gagra
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Gagra is 16% better for: goals scored per match.
0.86 goals / match - Dinamo Tbilisi · 1 goals / match - Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi is 83% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.86 goals / match - Dinamo Tbilisi · 1.57 goals / match - Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi scores in 57% of matches (4 of 7 matches), while Gagra keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 7 matches).
Gagra scores in 71% of matches (5 of 7 matches), while Dinamo Tbilisi keeps a clean sheet in 43% (3 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Dinamo Tbilisi
Over / Under - Gagra
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Dinamo Tbilisi is 100% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.14 pts / match - Dinamo Tbilisi · 0.57 pts / match - Gagra
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Dinamo Tbilisi - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 14%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Gagra - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (2 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Dinamo Tbilisi
Gagra
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Erovnuli Liga).
Teams vs league
| Dinamo Tbilisi | Liga | Gagra | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.71 | 2.14 | ▲ 2.57 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 57% | 51% | ▲ 71% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 43% | 49% | ▲ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 43% | 33% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 57% | 66% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 43% | 69% | ▲ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Dinamo Tbilisi 1 - 1 - 2 Gagra. Average goals 3.25, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra?
The Erovnuli Liga match finished Dinamo Tbilisi 0:1 Gagra. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Tbilisi and Gagra?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Dinamo Tbilisi won 1, Gagra won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.25 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra?
Dinamo Tbilisi score 0.86 goals per game on average and Gagra 1.00. The Erovnuli Liga average is 2.14 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Dinamo Tbilisi's matches and 71% of Gagra's.
What form are Dinamo Tbilisi and Gagra in?
Over the last 5 games Dinamo Tbilisi have a 0-4-1 record (0.80 points per game) and Gagra 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.