Diósgyőr vs Ajka: match statistics

Ajka are 6th in the table, while Diósgyőr sit 12th, and the visitors have made the steadier start to the season: they remain unbeaten after 2 matches, with 1 win and 1 draw. The visitors have scored 4 goals and conceded just 2, whereas the hosts have found the net 3 times but have allowed as many as 6 goals. Although Diósgyőr have recorded 2 wins in their last five matches, their defence has conceded 14 goals—an average of 2.8 per game. Ajka have also failed to impress in their recent run, losing 3 of their last 5 matches, but they have conceded fewer goals over that period than the hosts: 10 compared with 14. Their advantage in the current standings and the clearly more solid defence shown in the opening rounds point to a narrow Ajka victory.

The BTTS signal is driven primarily by current form: Diósgyőr and Ajka have each scored 1.2 goals per match across their last 5 games. At the same time, the hosts have conceded an average of 2.8 goals, while the visitors have conceded 2.0, clearly increasing the chances of both attacks finding the back of the net. The quality-of-chances metrics support this: Ajka recorded an xG of 1.16 against opponents’ xG of 2.23, while Diósgyőr produced an xG of 1.10 and allowed opponents an xG of 1.60. BTTS - Yes occurred in 60% of Diósgyőr’s and 80% of Ajka’s last five appearances, more frequently than the league average of 52%. The season data is very limited and partially incomplete, so the edge for “Yes” is not substantial; however, the weak defensive performances of both teams point towards a goal from each side.

Both teams have averaged 1.2 goals scored over their last 5 matches, but Diósgyőr conceded as many as 2.8 goals per game, while Ajka conceded 2.0. Diósgyőr’s matches went Over 2.5 goals in 100% of their last five appearances, while the same outcome occurred in 80% of Ajka’s games. Their attacking potential is also supported by average xG figures of 1.10 for the hosts and 1.16 for the visitors, with Ajka recording a particularly high xGA of 2.23. The hosts averaged 2.0 goals scored at home, but failed to keep a clean sheet in any match, further strengthening the chances of at least two goals. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the current form of both defences and the regularity of matches finishing above 2.5 goals clearly limit the likelihood of a game with no more than one goal.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Diósgyőr win, as the hosts were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches. Ajka were trailing at half-time in as many as 60% of the matches in this run, but Diósgyőr have also struggled to start matches: they average just 0.4 goals scored before the break and 1.4 conceded. After the interval, the hosts have performed relatively better, winning the second half in 60% of their last five appearances, compared with 40% for Ajka. Diósgyőr also have a higher win rate across their last five matches—40% versus 20% for their opponents—which, combined with home advantage, points towards a turnaround or a decisive result after the break. In those same five matches, both teams scored after half-time on every occasion, while the average number of second-half goals was 2.2 for Diósgyőr and 2.0 for Ajka, making a decisive outcome more likely than the draw being maintained.