Dobrudzha 1919 vs Botev Plovdiv: match statistics

Botev Plovdiv appears to be the favorite: over the season they have scored 37 and conceded 37, while Dobrudzha 1919 have 23 scored and 40 conceded, so the visitors hold a 14-goal offensive advantage. The form differential confirms this — in the last 5 matches Botev scored 8 goals and averages 1.6 points per game, while Dobrudzha only 3 goals and 0.8 points per game. At home the hosts average 1.29 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game with xG 1.49 and 4.36 shots on target, but the visitors are efficient — away they have xG 1.35, 1.36 goals per game with 13% conversion and 3.79 shots on target. Defensively the picture is mixed: xG against for the visitors away is 1.68 versus 1.10 xG against for the hosts at home, but Botev has conceded only 4 goals in the last 5 matches versus 7 for Dobrudzha and the visitors have 36% clean sheets away vs 29% for the hosts. Considering the 14-goal seasonal advantage, better conversion (13% vs 11%) and higher form points average (1.6 vs 0.8), I predict an away win 55%, draw 25% and home win 20%.

Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates of 53% (Dobrudzha) and 57% (Botev), above the league average of 44%, indicating a propensity for Goal/Goal outcomes. This season Dobrudzha scores 1.20 and concedes 1.27 per match, while Botev scores 1.36 and concedes 1.29 — both sides concede roughly 1.3 goals per game, which facilitates a BTTS scenario. In chance-creation terms Dobrudzha has xG_for 1.77 and 5.47 shots on target on average, while Botev allows opponents around xG 1.68; at the same time Dobrudzha’s shot conversion is lower at 8% versus Botev’s 13%, explaining the divergence between xG and actual goals. Last-5 form is a counterpoint — Dobrudzha has scored only 3 goals (0.6 per game) and posted BTTS in 20%, whereas Botev scored 8 goals (1.6 per game) with BTTS in 40%, and Botev also has more clean sheets this season (36% vs 20%). Considering the strong seasonal signals (BTTS 53%/57%, xG_for 1.77 and 1.35 and average concessions ~1.3) alongside the hosts’ reduced finishing, I pick BTTS - Yes with a probability of 60% versus 40% for No.

The model indicates a high probability of Over 1.5 goals: total expected goals around 3.13 (xG ~1.73 for Dobrudzha vs ~1.40 for Botev), calculated as the average of a team’s attacking xG and the opponent’s defensive xG. Seasonal data support this view — Dobrudzha has 73% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Botev 71%, and both teams scored in 53% and 57% of matches respectively, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. The 2.5 line looks moderately likely: seasonal Over2.5 is 47% (home) and 71% (away), average about 59%, and xG_total 3.13 favors Over 2.5; however, the hosts have scored only 3 goals in their last 5 matches (0.6 avg), which reduces confidence — hence an Over 2.5 probability of 62%. Over 3.5 is less likely — seasonal Over3.5 are 20%/29% (home/away) and total xG 3.13 is below the 3.5 threshold, so I assign only 28% to Over 3.5. In summary, the strongest and safest signal is Over 1.5 (high 73%/71% seasonally and expected 3.13 goals), therefore I recommend backing the Over line at 1.5.

A half-time draw appears most likely — the home team were level at the break in 53% of matches and the visitors in 69%, giving an average of about a 61% chance of an HT draw. After the break the visitors have the greater likelihood: in their last five matches they won 40% of games and averaged 1.6 points per match versus the hosts’ 20% wins and 0.8 points per match, and the visitors won 40% of second halves versus 20% for the home side. Dobrudzha generates more chances (xG 1.77 vs 1.35, 14.47 shots vs 10.64 and 5.47 on target vs 3.79) but is less clinical (8% conversion vs 13%), which supports a half-time draw and a turnaround in favor of the more efficient visitors after the break. On this basis the single highest-probability forecast is X/2 (draw at Half‑Time / visitors win Full‑Time) at 32%; I also allocated 20% to X/X and 22% to 1/1, and the total probability of scenarios ending with a visitor win after 90 minutes is 40% (1/2 + X/2 + 2/2).