Dobrudzha 1919 vs Levski Sofia: match statistics

I back the away win (2). Levski Sofia holds a clear advantage in results and quality of chances: 21 wins and 60 goals this season versus Dobrudzha’s 7 wins and 21 goals. Away, Levski averages 1.77 goals scored and xG 2.00 with 15.69 shots and 64% possession, while Dobrudzha at home scores 1.23 goals, has xG 1.54 and 11.69 shots. Defensively Levski concedes only 0.77 goals per away match compared to Dobrudzha’s 1.00 conceded at home; in the last 5 fixtures the visitors have scored 8 goals and average 2.4 points per game, the hosts 4 goals and 1.2 points per game. Considering the xG differential (2.00 vs 1.54), superior chance volume and better form of the visitors, I assess a significant edge for Levski and recommend their victory.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 43% for Dobrudzha and 46% for Levski (league level 44%), yielding a baseline BTTS probability of ~44%. However, the home side keep a clean sheet in 50% of home matches, and in the last 5 fixtures they have scored only 4 goals (0.8 per game) while conceding 8 (1.6 per game), indicating a drop in offensive efficiency. Levski have scored 60 and conceded 19 this season, and in their last 5 matches they have an average xG of 1.79 with 8 goals, so the visitors are likely to score, but their defense is tight (seasonal average 0.77 goals conceded per game). Additionally, the home team’s season xG is 2.21, but recent xG has fallen to 1.47 and is not converting into goals (0.8 in the last 5), which limits the probability of both teams scoring. Based on this I assess 35% for BTTS - Yes and 65% for No; the strongest signal is the high rate of home clean sheets (50%) combined with Dobrudzha’s poor recent goal-scoring form.

Based on xG I estimate a total of around 3.05 goals: Dobrudzha 1.59 goals (attacking xG 2.21 and opponents’ average xG conceded 0.97 yield 1.59), and Levski 1.46 goals (attacking xG 2.00 and hosts’ average xG conceded 0.91 yield 1.46). Seasonal metrics show Dobrudzha had 79% of matches over 1.5 goals, Levski 62%, and both teams have a high percentage of matches with at least one goal (93% and 92%), indicating a strong likelihood of multiple goals. Dobrudzha averages 7.36 shots on target and converts 15% of them, Levski averages 5.69 shots on target with an 11% conversion — this confirms offensive potential and supports a high probability for Over 1.5. Although the probability for Over 2.5 is also meaningful (I suggest 68% over vs 32% under), the chance of Over 3.5 is lower (around 33% over), so the best and strongest line is Over 1.5. Additionally, in the last 5 matches both teams combined scored 12 goals (4 by the home side and 8 by the away), averaging 2.4 goals per game, which further reinforces the Over 1.5 signal.

Dobrudzha 1919 has very strong half-time statistics at home: they led at the break in 7 of 14 home matches (50%) and were never trailing at half-time (trailingAtHT_home = 0%), with an average of 0.86 goals scored by half-time and only 0.07 conceded. Over full matches the hosts win 86% of home games (winPercentage_home = 86.0) with an average of 2.64 goals scored per match versus 1.77 by visitors, yielding a strong full-time advantage. After the break the hosts also create the most chances — they average 1.79 second-half goals (scored_2hg_avg_home = 1.79), have higher second-half xG of 2.21 versus 2.00 for the away side, and more on-target shots 7.36 vs 5.69, so even if level at half-time they have a high probability of winning. Levski does have 69% wins in their matches (winPercentage_away = 69.0) and scores 1.77 goals on average, but they less often lead at the break (leadingAtHT_away = 4, 31%) and rarely score before half-time, while the hosts keep half-time clean sheets in 93% of cases (seasonCSPercentageHT_home = 93.0). Therefore the strongest signal is 1/1 (leading at the break and home win) — I assigned it 45%, with the alternative X/1 at 41% (draw at half-time, Dobrudzha win); combinations with the away side leading at half-time received 0% due to trailingAtHT_home = 0%.