Dordrecht vs AZ II: match statistics

AZ II sit 11th, four places above Dordrecht, and have collected 1.2 points per game over their last five matches compared with the hosts’ 0.8. The visitors are significantly more clinical away from home: they score an average of 3 goals per game and convert 19% of their shots, while Dordrecht average 1 goal at home with a 6% conversion rate. AZ II have yet to record a goalless away game, while Dordrecht have failed to keep a clean sheet in any home fixture. Although the hosts create slightly lower xG than their opponents—1.73 compared with 1.87—their disastrous run of conceding 16 goals in their last five matches significantly reduces their chances. AZ II’s defence also allows an average of 2.5 goals away from home, so this could be an open game, but the greater attacking potential favours the visitors.

The signal for goals from both sides is clear: BTTS occurred in 67% of Dordrecht’s matches and in all AZ II fixtures, compared with a league average of 79%. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, while AZ II concede an average of 2.50 goals per match, significantly increasing the hosts’ chances despite their average of only 1.00 goal scored. Dordrecht conceded as many as 3.20 goals per game in their last five outings, while AZ II scored 1.80 goals per match over the same period. The xG data also support the BTTS - Yes option: the hosts create an average of 1.65 xG and the visitors 1.87 xG, while AZ II allow opponents 2.05 xG. The biggest risk to the pick is Dordrecht’s inefficiency, as they failed to score in 33% of their matches; however, the opponent’s weak defence makes a Goal/Goal scenario more likely.

Dordrecht have conceded an average of 3.2 goals in their last 5 matches, while AZ II have scored 1.8 goals per game over the same period, clearly increasing the visitors’ offensive potential. AZ II average 7.5 shots on target and have an xG of 1.87, whereas Dordrecht have kept no clean sheets. The hosts should also create chances, as their average xG stands at 1.65, while AZ II allow opponents an xG of around 2.05 and have also failed to keep a clean sheet. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of the last five matches involving both teams, but the 1.5 line offers the safest edge with a projected total of 3.60 goals. Further confirmation comes from the league average of 3.79 goals and the fact that 74% of matches featured at least three goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an AZ II win after 90 minutes, as the visitors were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches, while Dordrecht were trailing at half-time in 60% of their games. AZ II create more chances: their average xG stands at 1.87 compared with the hosts’ 1.65, and they average 7.5 shots on target per match versus Dordrecht’s 4.67. The second half should prove decisive, with AZ II averaging 1.4 goals after the break in their last five matches, while Dordrecht scored just 0.2 and conceded 1.4. The hosts are also in poor defensive form, having allowed an average of 3.2 goals per game in their last five outings, whereas AZ II scored 1.8. The main risk to the selection is the visitors’ defence, which concedes an average of 2.5 goals, but their attacking superiority and clearly stronger second-half performance support a turnaround or a late shift in favour of AZ II after the break.