Dravinja vs ND Slovan Ljubljana: match statistics

Although ND Slovan Ljubljana are 8th and Dravinja 15th, the home-and-away records point to the hosts. Dravinja average 1.67 goals at home from an xG of 1.61, while the visitors score just 0.75 goals per away game from an xG of 0.99 and have failed to score in 75% of those matches. Both defences give opponents opportunities: the hosts concede an average of 2.67 goals at home, while the visitors concede 3.00 away, so a Dravinja win is far from assured. Both teams have recorded one win, one draw and three defeats across their last five matches, but Dravinja scored 7 goals in that run compared with Slovan’s tally of just 1. The hosts’ greater attacking efficiency and the visitors’ poor away record, with defeats in 75% of such matches, make Dravinja the pick.

The strongest argument against both teams scoring is the visitors’ attack: they have failed to score in 75% of their matches so far and have managed just one goal in total across their last five games. Dravinja have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches and have conceded an average of 0.5 goals there, making it even harder for the visitors to break through. The hosts look more likely to score: they average 1.5 goals at home, while Slovan concede 3.0 on the road. The risk to the BTTS - No pick is that Dravinja have conceded an average of 2.6 goals in their last five matches, but the visitors have scored just 0.2 goals per game over the same period. Therefore, a match in which only Dravinja score is more likely than one in which both teams find the net.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the visitors concede an average of 3.0 goals per away match and have gone over this line in 100% of those games. Dravinja score an average of 1.5 goals at home, with an xG of 1.44; they also average 5.0 shots on target, compared with 2.25 for their opponents. The teams’ last five matches also point to goals: at least three goals were scored in 80% of Dravinja’s games and 60% of Slovan’s. However, the visitors’ scoring form limits the chances of a higher total, as they scored only 1 goal across those five matches, making Over 1.5 a stronger option than Over 2.5.

Dravinja led at the break in 3 of their 4 home matches, while ND Slovan Ljubljana were trailing at half-time in 3 of their 4 away games. The hosts averaged 1.5 first-half goals, whereas the visitors conceded an average of 1.75 away from home before the break, pointing to an early Dravinja lead. The advantage carries through to the full-time results: Dravinja won 3 of their 4 home matches, while Slovan lost 3 of their 4 away games, conceding an average of 3 goals. The hosts’ record of not conceding after the break in 3 of their 4 home matches also supports them holding on to their lead. However, recent form tempers confidence in the prediction: across their last five matches, regardless of venue, Dravinja did not lead at half-time once. Despite this, the strongest signal remains a home lead at the break followed by a home win at full-time (1/1).