Drogheda United vs Dundalk: match statistics

A draw appears most likely: Drogheda at home averages 1.0 goals scored and concedes 1.0 per match, with as many as 63% of games resulting in a clean sheet, while Dundalk away records 1.5 scored and 2.13 conceded on average. The visitors, however, dominate chance creation — averaging 17.38 shots away, 5.88 shots on target and xG 1.87 versus the home xG 1.25 — which suggests Dundalk will generate more scoring opportunities. Despite this offensive edge, Dundalk have only a 13% away win rate and 0% clean sheets, have won just 1 of their last 5 matches, and average 0.8 points in their last five compared to Drogheda’s 1.2 points, which reduces the visitors’ realistic chance of victory. Drogheda at home also show solid defensive efficiency (average xG against 1.52 and a home goal difference of 0), and their 4 shots on target per match from 11 total shots often suffice to pick up points. Therefore I favor a draw, with a smaller probability of a narrow home win; Dundalk’s attack (28 goals this season versus the home side’s 21) increases the likelihood of goals, but defensive metrics and recent points-per-game support a share of the spoils.

Both teams have season BTTS rates of 56% (Drogheda) and 75% (Dundalk), versus a league average of 57%, which favors a Goal/Goal scenario. Dundalk concedes 2.13 goals on the season with 0% clean sheets, while Drogheda concedes 1.0 and keeps a clean sheet in 44% of matches; however, over the last 5 matches concessions rose to 2.0 for Dundalk and 1.6 for Drogheda. In the last 5 fixtures both teams registered BTTS in 60% of games; across those five matches Drogheda scored 5 and conceded 8, Dundalk scored 6 and conceded 10, indicating a tendency to trade goals. Creation and conversion metrics also support BTTS: xG 1.74 for the home side vs 1.87 for the away side, xG against 1.45 and 1.69, average shots 14.78 vs 17.38 and SOT 6.22 vs 5.88 with conversion 12% vs 9%, so both teams create and convert chances. On this basis I consider BTTS - Yes more likely and estimate its probability at 72% versus 28% for No Goal.

The model estimates expected goals at 1.72 for Drogheda and 1.66 for Dundalk (calculated from xG averages: 1.74 and 1.69 giving 1.72 for the home side; 1.87 and 1.45 giving 1.66 for the visitors), total = 3.38 goals. Seasonal metrics show Over 1.5 occurred in 78% of Drogheda’s matches and 100% of Dundalk’s matches (avg ≈89%), and both teams to score happens in 56% and 75% of cases respectively, which further increases the probability of at least two goals. For the 2.5 line, Over appeared in 56% of the home matches and 63% of the away matches (avg ≈60%), and the predicted 3.38 goals additionally supports Over 2.5, but not as strongly as Over 1.5. The 3.5 line is less certain: seasonally 33% vs 63% (avg ≈48%) and the 3.38 projection is slightly below the 3.5 threshold, so Over 3.5 is a riskier pick. As a result, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5, hence the recommendation to back Over at the 1.5 line.

Drogheda United are the favourites: they have a 56% win rate this season versus Dundalk’s 13%, score on average 1.78 goals per match and concede 1.00, while Dundalk average 1.50 scored and 2.13 conceded. At Half-Time the hosts are often level — in 3 of the last 5 matches they were level at the break (60%), and the average goals by Half-Time is 0.67 for Drogheda with 0.33 conceded, which favours draws at the break. After the break, however, the hosts dominate: Drogheda score on average 1.11 goals in the second half and have won 56% of their second halves, whereas Dundalk concede on average 1.38 goals after Half-Time and win only 25% of second halves. Additionally the hosts have scored 9 goals in minutes 76–90 versus Dundalk’s 4, and the average points per match are 1.89 for the home side versus 1.00 for the visitors, so the strongest scenario is Half-Time draw and home win Full-Time (X/1).