Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.: match statistics

St Patrick's Athl. sit 2nd and have won 13 matches across the season, while Drogheda United are ninth with 6 victories; however, both teams remain unbeaten in their last five games. During this period, the hosts conceded just 2 goals and recorded 3 draws, which aligns well with their home record of 46% draws and 46% clean sheets. The visitors create more chances away from home, averaging 14.69 shots compared with Drogheda’s 11.62, while their xG stands at 1.64 versus 1.29 for the hosts. At the same time, both teams score exactly 1.08 goals per match at home and away respectively, while St Patrick's fail to score in 46% of their away fixtures. The visitors’ quality and league-position advantage is evident, but Drogheda’s very solid recent defensive record and both sides’ strong tendency to draw point towards a share of the points.

The “No” outcome has a slight edge, as Drogheda keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches, while St Patrick's fail to score in as many as 46% of games. The hosts have been particularly solid in their recent run: they have conceded just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game, while BTTS has landed in only 20% of their fixtures. St Patrick's have recently averaged 1.8 goals and boast an xG of 1.72, so their scoring threat remains genuine, but finding the net against Drogheda’s defence will be more difficult than their attacking form alone suggests. Drogheda create plenty of chances, with an average xG of 2.18 and 6.86 shots on target per match, making the scenario in which the hosts score while at least one team fails to find the net more likely. The teams’ seasonal BTTS figures—43% for Drogheda and 46% for St Patrick's—are also clearly below the league average of 60%, further strengthening the BTTS - No pick.

Drogheda average 2.07 goals scored at home, but concede only 0.57, which limits the potential for an open, high-scoring game. St Patrick's average 1.08 goals scored away from home, while in their last five matches, the hosts have allowed their opponents just 2 goals in total. Across the season, Drogheda's matches finished Under 3.5 goals in 64% of cases, compared with 77% for St Patrick's. Although both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in 60% of their last five matches, the projected total of 2.35 goals provides stronger support for the Under 3.5 option. The Under 3.5 line has the edge, as it takes at least four goals to lose the bet, despite the hosts' highly solid defense.

Drogheda United win 64% of their matches, score an average of 2.07 goals and concede just 0.57, while St Patrick’s Athl. have a 31% win rate and concede an average of 1.15 goals. The hosts take the lead at the break more often (43% of matches compared with 31% for the visitors), and their superiority in chance quality is clear: their xG stands at 2.18 against the opponents’ 1.64, while shots on target average 6.86 versus 4.08. After half-time, Drogheda score an average of 1.21 goals and concede just 0.14, whereas the visitors score only 0.46 goals in this period and concede 0.69. The most likely HT/FT outcome is therefore 1/1, with the hosts leading at the break and maintaining their advantage until full-time, although a draw at half-time remains a significant alternative given Drogheda’s 36% rate of half-time draws.