Dugopolje vs Kustošija: match statistics

Kustošija have shown better form in their last five matches, taking 8 points from 2 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat, while Dugopolje have collected 6 points from 2 wins and 3 losses. The visitors have also been significantly more clinical, scoring 12 goals in five matches—an average of 2.4 per game—compared with Dugopolje’s 5 goals. Kustošija conceded 6 goals during this period, while the hosts conceded as many as 10, equating to 1.2 and 2.0 goals conceded per match, respectively. Dugopolje have lost 3 of their last 5 games and, given their defensive vulnerability, may struggle to contain the opposition’s attack. Kustošija’s draws in their last two matches increase the likelihood of a stalemate, but the 12:6 goal difference strongly favours an away win.

The BTTS signal is moderately positive, as both teams recorded this scenario 60% of the time in their last 5 matches. Dugopolje averaged 1.0 goal scored during this period, but also conceded as many as 2.0 goals per match, creating favorable conditions for Kustošija to score. The visitors are in clearly better offensive form, having scored 12 goals in 5 matches—an average of 2.4 per game—while the hosts conceded 10. The main risk to the pick is Dugopolje’s limited scoring efficiency, with only 5 goals in their last 5 outings; however, Kustošija’s defense has conceded 6 goals. The visitors’ attacking advantage and the hosts’ high goals-conceded rate slightly support the expectation that both teams will get on the scoresheet, making BTTS - Yes the marginally preferred outcome.

The most useful data from the last 5 matches point to open games: Dugopolje averaged 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, resulting in a total of 3.0 goals per match. Over the same period, Kustošija scored as many as 2.4 goals per game, while its matches produced an average of 3.6 goals, based on 12 goals scored and 6 conceded. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Dugopolje’s last 5 matches and in 3 of Kustošija’s 5 games, while both teams scored in 60% of cases. Dugopolje’s average xG is 1.29, but the lack of xG data for the visitors increases uncertainty at higher lines; nevertheless, Kustošija’s superior attacking form and the hosts’ weak defence clearly support Over 1.5 goals.

The strongest signal points to Kustošija: they have averaged 2.4 goals over their last five matches, compared with just 1.0 for Dugopolje, while the hosts have conceded as many as 2.0 goals per game. The visitors were leading at the break in 67% of those matches and scored an average of 1.67 goals before half-time, compared with Dugopolje’s 0.8. After the interval, the form advantage also remains with Kustošija, who averaged 1.0 goal and won the second half in 67% of matches, while Dugopolje failed to win any second half and scored just 0.2 goals per game after the break. Kustošija have lost only 20% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for Dugopolje, making a Kustošija lead at half-time followed by a full-time victory the most likely scenario.