Dumbarton vs Spartans: match statistics

Spartans sit 3rd, while Dumbarton are only 9th, with the visitors collecting 12 points from seven matches compared with the hosts’ 6 points. Current form also clearly favors Spartans: they have won 3 of their last five matches and averaged 2 points per game, whereas Dumbarton have suffered 3 defeats and average just 0.8 points. The visitors are significantly more effective in front of goal, scoring 19 goals this season and 15 in their last five matches, while the hosts have scored 5 and 6 respectively. Away from home, Spartans average 2 goals per match from 8 shots, with a 25% conversion rate, whereas Dumbarton create fewer chances at home, averaging 5.33 shots and an xG of 1.03. The hosts can rely on home advantage, having won 2 of their 3 matches there, but a -9 goal difference across the competition and 14 goals conceded in their last five outings increase the visitors’ chances of victory.

Dumbarton have a very clear profile of matches featuring goals from both sides: BTTS landed in 100% of their home fixtures and in 80% of their last five matches overall. The hosts have kept no clean sheets, conceding an average of 2.25 goals at home and as many as 2.8 goals per match across their last five appearances, which strongly supports Spartans to score. Spartans are in good attacking form, averaging 3.0 goals scored and an xG of 1.90 across their last five matches, while Dumbarton’s defence allowed opponents an xG of 1.75. On the other hand, the visitors kept a clean sheet in 33% of their matches, and their season BTTS rate stands at just 33%, so the risk of Dumbarton failing to score remains significant. Nevertheless, the hosts average 5.75 shots on target at home and have an xG of 1.51, while Spartans concede an average of 1.0 goal away from home. Therefore, the BTTS - Yes scenario is marginally more likely.

Dumbarton have conceded an average of 2.8 goals in their last 5 matches, while Spartans have scored as many as 3.0 goals per game over the same period, strongly supporting the scenario of at least two goals. The recent matches of both teams have been high-scoring: the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in 80% of the last five appearances for each side. Spartans have recently been generating 1.90 xG, while Dumbarton's defence allows an average of 1.75 xG, meaning the visitors should offer clear attacking potential. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches this season, but they themselves average 5.75 shots on target and their average xG stands at 1.51. The 3.20-goal projection provides the strongest edge for Over 1.5 goals, as even with lower efficiency from both attacks, the two-goal barrier remains highly attainable.

Spartans have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 3.0 goals, while Dumbarton have lost 60% of their games during this period and conceded as many as 2.8 goals per match. The visitors held a lead at the break in 60% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.4 goals before half-time and conceding just 0.4, compared with the hosts’ 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Spartans’ superior form is also evident after the interval: they won the second half in 80% of their recent matches, while Dumbarton scored just 0.4 goals in this period and conceded 2.0. The hosts have a higher seasonal xG, 1.51 compared with 1.11, but this has not translated into current attacking efficiency, as their average goals scored over the last five matches stands at just 1.2. The most likely scenario is therefore that Spartans will take the lead before half-time and hold it until the final whistle, making the HT/FT outcome 2/2.