Dunav 2010 vs Ludogorets: match statistics

I predict an away win (Ludogorets). Ludogorets sit 1st in the table while Dunav 2010 are 14th, indicating a clear advantage for the visitors. In the last 5 matches Dunav scored 7 and conceded 6 (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; form 'wdlwl'), whereas Ludogorets scored 3 and conceded 2 (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss; form 'dlwdw'). Thus the home side have been more productive offensively (7 vs 3) but significantly weaker defensively (6 conceded vs 2). This season Ludogorets additionally have 1 win and a goal difference of 1:0, while Dunav have 0 wins and a goal difference of 1:2, and the points-per-game over the last 5 matches are 1.6 for the visitors versus 1.4 for the hosts, supporting a higher probability of a Ludogorets victory.

The primary signal for BTTS - Yes is the high league level — 71% of Bulgaria First League matches finish with goals from both teams, and Dunav had BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches. In their last 5 Dunav scored 7 goals (1.4 per match) and conceded 6 goals (1.2 per match), showing the hosts both create and allow goals. Ludogorets has only 20% BTTS in their last 5, scored 3 goals (0.6 per match) and conceded 2 goals (0.4 per match), indicating the away side’s low finishing. However, xG shows the visitors generate 1.49 xG versus 1.17 xG for the hosts, and xG against values are similar (1.54–1.58), so chances for goals at both ends exist despite Ludogorets’ low goals return. Given the strong league signal of 71% and the fact Dunav concedes on average 1.2 goals while Ludogorets has 1.49 xG (which should translate into chance creation), I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 71% vs 29%.

xG and form analysis from the last 5 matches indicates a moderately high goal potential: Dunav 2010 averages xG 1.17 and Ludogorets 1.49, totaling 2.66 xG per match. In practice, over the last 5 games Dunav scored 7 goals (1.4 per match) and Ludogorets 3 goals (0.6 per match), so the actual combined total is 2.0 goals with a clear finishing shortfall from the visitors (xG 1.49 vs 0.6 goals). Both teams are also relatively open defensively: Dunav concedes 1.54 xG per match on average, while Ludogorets’ opponents generate 1.58 xG, and the hosts average 4.0 on-target shots with a conversion rate of 13%. The cumulative xG of 2.66 exceeds the league average of 2.0, so the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is backing Over 1.5. Over 2.5 has moderate support (xG 2.66), but the visitors’ low finishing reduces its certainty; therefore I recommend choosing Over 1.5.

Season-long statistics strongly favor Dunav: the hosts have 100% wins and 100% leads at the break (1 of 1 matches), averaging 1.0 goal by half-time and 1.0 goals per match versus 0.0 for Ludogorets. Dunav produces 1.07 xG per match compared to 0.00 xG for the visitors and maintains 100% clean sheets this season (0.0 goals conceded), which increases the likelihood of a full victory. The hosts’ sole goal was scored between the 31st–45th minute (1 goal), so a lead at the break aligns with the team profile; although xG against is 1.83, in practice they have not yet conceded. Therefore I assign the 1/1 Half-Time/Full-Time scenario the highest probability (55%), with alternatives X/1 (15%) and 1/X (10%) having considerably lower numerical support.