Dundalk vs Derry City: match statistics

Dundalk is the clear favorite: in the last 5 matches they have 4 wins and 1 draw (form: wwdww), scoring 12 goals and averaging 2.6 points per game, while Derry in their last 5 have 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, only 4 goals and an average of 0.6 points per game. At home Dundalk scores on average 2.25 goals and concedes only 0.25 goals per game with 75% clean sheets and 75% home wins, whereas Derry on the road average 0.25 goals and failed to score in 75% of their away matches. Chance creation also favors the hosts: Dundalk averages 14.5 shots per game with 5.75 on target and has a 16% conversion rate, Derry average 9.75 shots with 2.5 on target and only a 3% conversion. xG metrics show a moderate edge for Dundalk (xG at home 1.62 vs away xG 1.14), and the fact Dundalk concedes only 0.25 goals at home despite xG against of 1.52 suggests an efficient defense and good finishing in the opponent’s box. Considering these differences and Derry’s lack of away wins (0% away wins), I back the home victory.

The primary case for BTTS - Yes is Dundalk's high season rate – 83% BTTS and 0% clean sheets at home, with averages of 1.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match. Derry's away offensive numbers are poor: just 0.25 goals on average, season BTTS 25% and 50% clean sheets, which argues against a BTTS outcome. However, xG and shot metrics send mixed signals – Dundalk has xG_for 2.04 at home, 16.67 shots and 6.83 shots on target with a conversion rate of 11%, while Derry has xG_for 1.14, 9.75 shots and 2.5 shots on target with a 3% conversion, giving the visitors a realistic, albeit limited, chance to score. In the last 5 matches Dundalk scored 12 goals (2.4 avg) and conceded 3 (0.6 avg), while Derry scored 4 (0.8 avg) and conceded 6 (1.2 avg), with BTTS in the last 5 standing at 60% for Derry and 40% for Dundalk, which does not rule out the visitors hitting the net. Considering 83% vs 25% season BTTS, 0% vs 50% season clean sheets, xG 2.04 vs 1.14 and the fact Dundalk concedes 1.67 goals at home on average, I assess BTTS as more likely — 70% YES / 30% NO.

xG and statistical analysis indicate a match leaning towards a higher goal count. Dundalk’s attacking xG is 2.04, while the xG Derry typically concedes away is 1.54, yielding an estimated home value of (2.04+1.54)/2 = 1.79 goals. Derry’s attacking xG of 1.14 and xG conceded to Dundalk of 1.00 give (1.14+1.00)/2 = 1.07 goals for the visitors, totaling ≈2.86 goals for the match. Dundalk averages 6.83 shots on target and has 83% of home matches Over 2.5 goals, whereas Derry averages 0.25 goals away and only 25% of away games Over 2.5; additionally Derry’s low shot conversion rate of 3% limits their chances. Based on this, the primary signal is Over 2.5 goals (strongest edge), with Over 1.5 very likely as well, and Over 3.5 remaining less certain.

Dundalk shows strong form over the last 5 matches: 80% wins and leading at the break in 60% of games (last5_winPercentage_overall_home=80%, last5_leadingAtHTPercentage_overall_home=60%), with an average of 1.2 goals before half-time (last5_scoredAVGHT_overall_home=1.2). On the season level the hosts have an xG of 2.04 versus 1.14 for Derry and average 6.83 shots on target compared to 2.5 for the visitors, while a conversion rate of 11% vs 3% further favors their finishing. The away side are poor on the road (last5_winPercentage_overall_away=0%, seasonScoredAVG_away=0.25) and rarely lead at the break (leadingAtHTPercentage_away=0% seasonally, 20% in the last 5), which reduces the likelihood of a 2/... outcome. Dundalk also exhibit a clear second-half impulse (3 goals in minutes 46–60 and 5 goals in 76–90), increasing the probability of maintaining or extending a lead. Considering the 60% probability of Dundalk leading at half-time and the high HT/FT conversion rate into wins (80% in the last 5), the 1/1 scenario is the strongest betting signal.