Dundalk vs Shelbourne: match statistics

Dundalk have a clearly superior attacking profile at home, averaging 1.64 goals scored from 1.91 xG, compared with Shelbourne’s 1.29 goals and 1.48 xG away from home. The hosts also register more shots per match (17.14 vs 13.5) and more shots on target (5.79 vs 4.0), while they have not failed to score in any home fixture. Recent form strongly favors Dundalk, who have scored 15 goals in their last five matches and picked up 7 points, whereas Shelbourne have managed just 4 goals, failed to win any of those games and collected 3 points. However, the visitors are difficult to beat away from home, losing only 14% of such matches and drawing as many as 50%, meaning a draw remains a significant possibility. Nevertheless, Dundalk’s superior chance-creation quality and home advantage give them a slightly better chance of securing the win.

The seasonal BTTS indicators are clearly above the league average of 59%: Dundalk stands at 73%, while Shelbourne is at 64%. Dundalk keeps a clean sheet in only 13% of matches and concedes an average of 1.67 goals, giving the visitors a solid chance of scoring. The hosts have been highly productive recently, scoring 15 goals in five matches with an average xG of 2.18, while Shelbourne allows opponents an xG of 1.66. The main risk to the pick is the visitors’ weaker current finishing, as they have scored only 4 goals in their last five matches, but their seasonal averages of 1.29 goals and xG 1.48 still support at least one goal. The data advantage regarding Dundalk’s regular goals conceded, combined with the hosts’ attacking form, points slightly more strongly towards a scenario in which both teams score.

Dundalk are in very strong attacking form: they have scored 15 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 3.0 per game, with an xG of 2.18. Shelbourne have recently scored only 0.8 goals per match, but Dundalk concede an average of 1.8, while both teams regularly create chances, recording seasonal xG figures of 1.56 and 1.48, respectively. At least 2 goals were scored in 80% of Dundalk’s matches and 64% of Shelbourne’s fixtures, while the league-wide average is 2.74 goals. The Over 1.5 goals line therefore has the strongest support in the data, whereas Shelbourne’s 29% clean-sheet rate does not outweigh the hosts’ attacking quality and current scoring efficiency.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Dundalk were level at the break in 53% of their matches, compared with 50% for Shelbourne. The visitors have not led at half-time in any of their last five matches, while 60% of those games were level at the interval. After the break, the arguments shift in Dundalk’s favour: the hosts have recently averaged 1.8 goals in the second half, compared with just 0.6 for Shelbourne, while Dundalk’s defence conceded only 0.6 goals during that period. Although Shelbourne have the better season-long record, averaging 1.57 points per match compared with Dundalk’s 0.93, the hosts’ current form is clearly stronger: 3.0 goals scored per match in their last five appearances, compared with 0.8 for the visitors. The strongest HT/FT scenario is therefore a level first half followed by Dundalk taking the lead after the break and securing a home win.