Dundee vs Aberdeen: match statistics
Dundee vs Aberdeen: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Dundee played Aberdeen in Premiership (Scotland). The match was played on 17 May 2026. Venue: Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
Dundee: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Aberdeen: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Dundee scores 1.05 and concedes 1.59 goals per match. Aberdeen scores 1.03 and concedes 1.41. League average: 2.76 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Dundee 46%, Aberdeen 35%. Over 2.5: Dundee 57%, Aberdeen 32%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Aberdeen has higher xG: 1.24 vs 1.13. Dundee: 10.0 shots per match, Aberdeen: 11.3.
Match halves
Dundee: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.51. Aberdeen: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.59.
Goals by minute
Dundee: 76-90+ (10 goals). Aberdeen: 61-75 (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premiership: 2.76 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-2. Average goals 4.33, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Dundee has a clear attacking edge at home — they score an average of 1.56 goals per home match versus just 0.56 goals for Aberdeen away, a difference of 1.00 goal per game. The hosts register 3.56 shots on target at home with a 14% conversion rate, while Aberdeen manage only 2.39 shots on target and a 5% conversion rate on the road, indicating higher chance quality and efficiency for Dundee. The effectiveness gap is further illustrated by the “no goal scored” metric: Dundee fail to score in 17% of home matches, whereas Aberdeen are goalless in 61% of away fixtures, despite an away xG of 1.07 (Dundee home xG 1.26). Aberdeen have the better recent form (3 wins in the last 5 and 2.0 pts/match), but away wins come only 22% of the time and their goal difference on the road is -19, while Dundee win 44% of home games and have a home goal difference of +2. Considering the higher efficiency, more shots on target and much lower share of goalless games for the hosts, I tip a Dundee win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The more likely scenario in this match is 'No' (both teams not to score). Aberdeen average only 0.56 goals away and have a season BTTS of 22%. Dundee score 1.47 at home with a BTTS of 47%, and their home xG_for is 1.41 versus Aberdeen’s away xG_against of 1.86 – indicating Dundee will likely create chances and score, but not necessarily that both teams will score. Aberdeen’s scoring chances are limited: away xG_for 1.07, only 2.39 shots on target and a 5% conversion rate, while Dundee record 4.42 shots on target and 12% conversion, giving Dundee a clear offensive edge. Form data supports the tendency: in the last 5 games BTTS for Dundee is 40% and for Aberdeen 20%, while the league average BTTS is 51%, so the pairing sits below the league average. For these reasons I assign a 30% probability to 'Yes' and 70% to 'No' – the main argument being Aberdeen’s low away goal average (0.56 and 22% BTTS), despite Dundee’s 1.47 goals and 1.41 xG at home.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a strong home goal potential: Dundee score an average of 1.47 goals at home with an xG of 1.41, while Aberdeen concede 1.61 goals away on average and have an xG against of 1.86, which together favor a home scorer. The visitors generate xG_for 1.07 but only 2.39 SOT per match and a low shot conversion rate of 5% (Dundee have 4.42 SOT and 12% conversion), so I expect Aberdeen’s actual goals to be limited. Based on this I estimate expected_goals_home = 1.71 and expected_goals_away = 0.99, total 2.70, which strongly supports Over 1.5 (Dundee over1.5 this season 79% and Aberdeen over1.5 67%). Over 2.5 is less certain: season over2.5 is 37% for Dundee and 28% for Aberdeen, and last 5 matches show 7 goals each for both teams with a defensive differential (Dundee conceded 8 in the last 5, Aberdeen 4), therefore I give Over 2.5 a 48% probability vs Under 52%. Over 3.5 remains unlikely (season over3.5: 21%/22%); I estimate about a 19% chance for over and 81% for under3.5; therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Dundee have a clear advantage in chance creation: xG 1.41 versus 1.07 for Aberdeen, average goals scored 1.47 vs 0.56 and shots on target per game 4.42 vs 2.39. At half-time Dundee average 0.63 goals while Aberdeen average 0.22; the home side led at the break in 6 matches (32%) compared to 3 matches (17%) for the visitors, and Aberdeen failed to score by half-time in 83% of fixtures, so a Dundee lead at the break is the most likely scenario. After the interval the hosts also dominate both in points and quality: post-half Dundee have collected 26 points and an average of 1.37 points after half-time versus 11 points and 0.61 for Aberdeen, which increases the probability of them holding the lead. Additionally the hosts’ shot conversion is 12% versus 5% for the visitors, and Aberdeen failed to score in 61% of season matches, which boosts the likelihood of a 1/1 Half-Time/Full-Time outcome; alternatives X/1 or X/X are possible but represent weaker signals.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Dundee | Aberdeen | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Aberdeen is 43% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Dundee · 2 pts / match - Aberdeen
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Aberdeen is 13% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.59 goals / match - Dundee · 1.41 goals / match - Aberdeen
Dundee scores in 59% of matches (22 of 37 matches), while Aberdeen keeps a clean sheet in 27% (10 of 37 matches).
Aberdeen scores in 57% of matches (21 of 37 matches), while Dundee keeps a clean sheet in 19% (7 of 37 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Dundee
Over / Under - Aberdeen
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Dundee is 13% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.19 pts / match - Dundee · 1.05 pts / match - Aberdeen
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Dundee - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 27%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Aberdeen - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (18). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Dundee
Aberdeen
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premiership).
Teams vs league
| Dundee | Liga | Aberdeen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.65 | 2.76 | ▼ 2.43 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 46% | 51% | ▼ 35% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 57% | 53% | ▼ 32% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 28% | • 27% |
| Goal before half-time | • 76% | 76% | ▼ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 70% | 80% | • 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Dundee 1 - 0 - 2 Aberdeen. Average goals 4.33, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Dundee vs Aberdeen?
The Premiership match finished Dundee 3:2 Aberdeen. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundee and Aberdeen?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Dundee won 1, Aberdeen won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 4.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Dundee vs Aberdeen?
Dundee score 1.05 goals per game on average and Aberdeen 1.03. The Premiership average is 2.76 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 46% of Dundee's matches and 35% of Aberdeen's.
What form are Dundee and Aberdeen in?
Over the last 5 games Dundee have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Aberdeen 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Dundee vs Aberdeen?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Dundee vs Aberdeen: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.