Dundee vs St. Johnstone: match statistics

Dundee have significantly stronger home figures: they have won 100% of their home matches, averaging 2 goals scored and are yet to concede. The hosts also create more high-quality chances, recording an average xG of 1.96 with 7 shots on target and 18 attempts per match, while St. Johnstone average an xG of 1.06 away from home and just 2 shots on target. The visitors lost their only away match so far without scoring, with their lack of effectiveness on the road reflected by 100% of matches ending without a goal. Recent form also marginally favours Dundee, who have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 8 goals, compared with St. Johnstone’s 2 victories. With Dundee’s home defence allowing opponents an xG of just 1.10, a home win is the most likely outcome, probably with few chances for the visitors.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is St. Johnstone’s very poor current away record: 0 goals scored, 100% of matches without scoring, and a shot conversion rate of 0%. The visitors also create fewer chances than Dundee, averaging 1.06 xG, 9 shots and 2 shots on target compared with the hosts’ 1.71 xG, 15 shots and 5 attempts on target. The last five matches partly soften this signal, as both teams averaged 1.6 goals scored, while BTTS occurred in 40% of St. Johnstone’s matches. However, Dundee conceded only 0.8 goals per match during this period, whereas the visitors’ defence allows an average of 1.2 goals, increasing the likelihood of a result featuring a home goal and a clean sheet for the away side. With the league BTTS average standing at 46%, the more likely scenario remains one in which at least one team fails to score.

The latest form of both teams points to a moderate goal tally: Dundee score an average of 1.6 goals and concede 0.8, while St. Johnstone score 1.6 and allow opponents 1.2 goals per match. In each team’s last five games, the 2.5-goal line was surpassed in only 40% of cases, which limits the argument for a highly open game. Dundee generate an average of 1.55 xG, while St. Johnstone’s defense allows just 0.83 xG, making it difficult to project the hosts to score significantly more than approximately 1.3 goals. The visitors have recorded 1.55 xG in their last five matches, but Dundee’s more solid defense and average of 0.8 goals conceded reduce their projection to 1.18. The combined projection of 2.50 goals offers the clearest edge for Under 3.5 goals, as at least four goals are required for this bet to lose.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time followed by a Dundee win: in their last five matches, the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 60% of games, while St. Johnstone recorded this outcome in as many as 80%. The first halves were also low-scoring, with Dundee averaging 0.4 goals and the visitors 0.2, while they kept a clean sheet before the break in 100% and 60% of their respective last five appearances. After the break, Dundee average 1.2 goals and win the second half in 60% of matches, while their opponents remain goalless in 40% of such periods. The hosts’ advantage is also supported by an xG of 1.71 compared with 1.06, as well as an average of 5 shots on target for Dundee against just 2 for St. Johnstone. The visitors have won none of the analysed away matches this season, whereas Dundee have a perfect home-winning record, strengthening the scenario of a turnaround after half-time.