Dunkerque vs Saint-Étienne: match statistics

Saint-Étienne sit top of the table and have won all 5 of their matches so far, scoring 16 goals and conceding just 4, while Dunkerque have a record of 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with a goal difference of 8:9. The visitors are exceptionally effective away from home, averaging 3 goals per match, registering 9.5 shots on target and converting 19% of their attempts, compared with the hosts’ home averages of 1.67 goals, 3.67 shots on target and an 11% conversion rate. Saint-Étienne also hold the edge in the quality of chances created, with an away xG of 1.94, while Dunkerque generate 1.63 xG at home. The hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet in any home match and concede an average of 1.33 goals, which, combined with the visitors’ run of 5 consecutive wins, increases the likelihood of an away victory. Dunkerque are capable of creating plenty of chances, averaging 15.67 shots, but Saint-Étienne’s excellent form and significantly greater efficiency point to an away win.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately positive: Dunkerque have recorded BTTS in 67% of their matches, while Saint-Étienne have done so in 50%, compared with a league average of 56%. In their last five matches, both teams registered this scenario in 60% of games, while Dunkerque conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match during this period. Saint-Étienne are in excellent attacking form, averaging 3.2 goals over their last five appearances and creating chances worth 1.90 xG, so they should exploit the hosts’ defensive vulnerability. Dunkerque also have a strong case to score, with average xG of 1.54, while opponents from Saint-Étienne allow an average of 0.98 xG and have kept a clean sheet in only 50% of their matches. The visitors’ solid defence, conceding 0.8 goals in their last five games, lowers confidence in the pick, but the attacking strength of both sides marginally favours BTTS - Yes.

The profile of both teams clearly points to goals: all matches played by Dunkerque and Saint-Étienne so far have gone over 1.5 goals, as well as over 2.5 goals. In their last five matches, Dunkerque games produced an average of 3.4 goals, while Saint-Étienne matches averaged as many as 4.0, with the visitors scoring an average of 3.2 goals. Saint-Étienne create chances worth an average of 1.90 xG, while Dunkerque have conceded 1.8 goals per game across their last five matches. The hosts also offer an attacking argument, averaging 18.0 shots and generating 1.54 xG in their last five appearances. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as even after a more conservative adjustment, the expected total of 3.05 goals provides a very high margin over this line.

Saint-Étienne are showing significantly better current form: they have won their last five matches, averaging 3.2 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, while Dunkerque have recorded only one win over the same period, with averages of 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match. The visitors tend to start matches particularly strongly, having led at the break in 60% of their last five fixtures and scored an average of 1.8 goals before half-time; the hosts recorded figures of 20% and 0.6 goals, respectively. Saint-Étienne’s advantage is also evident after the interval: they won the second half in 80% of their recent matches and scored 1.4 goals per game in that period, while Dunkerque lost the second half in 60% of cases. Although the hosts have a solid season-long xG of 1.90, the visitors create even more, at 1.94 xG, while their current defensive form allows an average of just 0.4 goals after half-time. The most likely scenario is therefore one in which Saint-Étienne take the lead before the break and hold it until the final whistle.