Dynamo Dresden vs Hertha BSC: match statistics
Dynamo Dresden vs Hertha BSC: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Dynamo Dresden played Hertha BSC in 2. Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 4 April 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Dynamo Dresden: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Hertha BSC: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Dynamo Dresden scores 1.67 and concedes 1.70 goals per match. Hertha BSC scores 1.56 and concedes 1.22. League average: 2.94 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Dynamo Dresden 78%, Hertha BSC 48%. Over 2.5: Dynamo Dresden 78%, Hertha BSC 52%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 60%.
xG, shots and style
xG is very similar for both teams. Dynamo Dresden: 13.1 shots per match, Hertha BSC: 12.5.
Match halves
Dynamo Dresden: half-time lead 48%, second-half goals 0.59. Hertha BSC: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 0.81.
Goals by minute
Dynamo Dresden: 31-45+ (16 goals). Hertha BSC: 31-45+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
2. Bundesliga: 2.94 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 60%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict an away win (2): Hertha sit 6th vs Dynamo 12th and have 12 wins this season compared to the hosts’ 7, indicating a clear results advantage. Defensively the visitors are superior — Hertha have conceded 33 goals this season versus Dynamo’s 46, with away goals conceded averaging 1.38 vs Dynamo’s 1.54 at home; additionally Hertha keep a clean sheet in 46% of away matches, while Dynamo record only 15% clean sheets at home. In attack Hertha average 2.15 goals scored away with an 18% conversion rate from 4.62 SOT, whereas Dynamo at home average 1.92 goals with a 15% conversion from 4.38 SOT; average xG is similar (xG: Dynamo 1.43 vs Hertha 1.41), so efficiency will be decisive. In the last 5 matches Dynamo are 2-2-1 with 13 scored and 6 conceded, while Hertha are 3-1-1 with 12 scored and 10 conceded and average 2.0 points per game vs Dynamo’s 1.6. Considering Hertha’s higher away win rate (54% vs hosts’ 31%) together with better season-long defense and efficiency, I give the visitors the higher probability, although the high average total goals (Dynamo 3.46 vs Hertha 3.54) suggests an open, high-scoring match.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes because Hertha scores an average of 2.15 goals per game and failed to score in only 8% of this season’s matches, while Dynamo Dresden has a season scoring average of 1.0 and a home BTTS rate of 43%, giving the visitors a clear edge in goal-scoring potential. In the last 5 matches both teams show increased attacking output: Dresden has recently averaged 2.6 goals and BTTS in 60% of those games, and Hertha has 2.4 goals and 100% BTTS in the last 5, which significantly boosts the likelihood of both teams scoring. Both teams generate similar xG: 1.47 for Dresden and 1.41 for Hertha (total 2.88), with virtually identical shots on target 4.64 vs 4.62, suggesting a realistic chance of at least one goal from each side. Additionally, Hertha conceded 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 average), the league overall has a BTTS rate of 60%, and Hertha’s high shot conversion (18% vs Dresden’s 8%) increases the probability that both teams will find the net; therefore estimated BTTS ~72% vs 28% for No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG analysis indicates 1.54 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.42 for Hertha BSC, totalling 2.96 goals, which is close to the league average of 2.93. Hertha averages 2.15 goals per game versus Dynamo’s 1.00, and with similar xG (1.47 vs 1.41) shows markedly better shot conversion: 18% compared to 8% for the hosts. Seasonal rates show over 1.5 in 71% of Dynamo matches and 77% of Hertha matches, and over 2.5 in 29% and 77% of cases respectively; additionally, in the last 5 fixtures both teams had 80% of games with more than 2.5 goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.96 yields roughly an 80% chance for Over 1.5, about 57% for Over 2.5 and about 35% for Over 3.5, which correlates with recent outputs (Dresden 2.6 goals average in the last 5, Hertha 2.4). The strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5 (80%), therefore I recommend betting on Over 1.5 as the best value.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Statistical analysis indicates a Hertha victory: the visitors average 2.15 goals per match versus 1.00 for the hosts and have a 54% win rate compared to Dynamo’s 36%. Hertha’s advantage is pronounced in the first half — average first-half goals are 1.00 for the visitors vs 0.50 for the hosts, and Hertha led at the break in 6 matches (46%) versus 4 matches (29%) for Dynamo. After the break the visitors also perform better: they score an average of 1.69 goals in second halves vs 1.14 for Dynamo and won second halves in 54% of cases compared to 28% for the hosts, which supports maintaining or extending a lead. Additionally, Hertha’s conversion rate of chances to goals is 18% versus 8% for Dynamo, with similar xG (1.41 vs 1.47), indicating the visitors convert chances more efficiently. For these reasons the clearest signal is a lead at the break and a full-time win for the visitors, therefore I select HT/FT 2/2.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Dynamo Dresden | Hertha BSC | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Hertha BSC is 25% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Dynamo Dresden · 2 pts / match - Hertha BSC
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Dynamo Dresden is 7% better for: goals scored per match.
1.67 goals / match - Dynamo Dresden · 1.56 goals / match - Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC is 39% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.7 goals / match - Dynamo Dresden · 1.22 goals / match - Hertha BSC
Dynamo Dresden scores in 85% of matches (23 of 27 matches), while Hertha BSC keeps a clean sheet in 41% (11 of 27 matches).
Hertha BSC scores in 78% of matches (21 of 27 matches), while Dynamo Dresden keeps a clean sheet in 11% (3 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Dynamo Dresden
Over / Under - Hertha BSC
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Dynamo Dresden is 15% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.7 pts / match - Dynamo Dresden · 1.48 pts / match - Hertha BSC
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Dynamo Dresden - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 48% of matches and wins 26%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Hertha BSC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +8 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 0% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (16 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (11 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Dynamo Dresden
Hertha BSC
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (2. Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Dynamo Dresden | Liga | Hertha BSC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.37 | 2.94 | ▼ 2.78 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 78% | 60% | ▼ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 78% | 60% | ▼ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 11% | 23% | ▲ 41% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 89% | 70% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 81% | 85% | ▼ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Dynamo Dresden 0 - 0 - 1 Hertha BSC. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Dynamo Dresden vs Hertha BSC?
The 2. Bundesliga match finished Dynamo Dresden 0:1 Hertha BSC. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Dynamo Dresden vs Hertha BSC?
Dynamo Dresden score 1.67 goals per game on average and Hertha BSC 1.56. The 2. Bundesliga average is 2.94 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 60% of games. Both teams score in 78% of Dynamo Dresden's matches and 48% of Hertha BSC's.
What form are Dynamo Dresden and Hertha BSC in?
Over the last 5 games Dynamo Dresden have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Hertha BSC 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Dynamo Dresden vs Hertha BSC?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.