Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty: match statistics
Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Dynamo Kyiv played Karpaty in Ukrainian Premier League (Ukraine). The match was played on 4 April 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Dynamo Kyiv: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match. Karpaty: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Dynamo Kyiv scores 2.33 and concedes 1.10 goals per match. Karpaty scores 1.38 and concedes 1.24. League average: 2.56 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Dynamo Kyiv 67%, Karpaty 43%. Over 2.5: Dynamo Kyiv 76%, Karpaty 43%. League level: BTTS 42%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Dynamo Kyiv has higher xG: 1.93 vs 1.68. Dynamo Kyiv: 16.5 shots per match, Karpaty: 14.2.
Match halves
Dynamo Kyiv: half-time lead 57%, second-half goals 1.14. Karpaty: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.86.
Goals by minute
Dynamo Kyiv: 31-45+ (13 goals). Karpaty: 16-30 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ukrainian Premier League: 2.56 goals per match, BTTS 42%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 6.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Dynamo Kyiv has a clear home advantage: 60% wins, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match, with average xG for 1.96 versus xG against 0.84. In the last 5 matches the hosts won all 5, scoring 15 goals (3.0 per match) and conceding only 2 (0.4 per match), yielding 3 points per game in that period. Karpaty away score on average 1.4 goals, concede 1.0 per match, register 5 shots on target and 50% possession, and their away xG for is 1.45 versus xG against 1.44; additionally 30% of their away games end goalless for them. Dynamo clearly creates more high-quality chances (7.1 shots on target at home and a 13% conversion versus 5 and 11% for Karpaty) and have a better season goal record 49–29 and home GD +14 versus the visitors’ +4 on the road. Considering form (5 straight wins), superiority in chance creation and better defence, I give the hosts a 75% chance to win, 15% for a draw and 10% for a Karpaty win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I project No BTTS (selection: 'no') based on Dynamo's defensive superiority in recent matches. Dynamo have scored 15 goals in their last 5 fixtures (3.0 per match) while conceding only 2 goals (0.4 per match); their recent attacking xG is 1.99 versus xG against 0.66, indicating low risk of conceding. Karpaty have an away season goals average of 1.4 (recently 1.8) and an attacking xG around 1.51, but their season away BTTS rate is only 30% with 50% clean sheets, meaning they often prevent conceding. Although Dynamo's season BTTS is 55% with 49 goals scored versus Karpaty’s 29, the low BTTS rates over the last 5 matches (Dynamo 40%, Karpaty 20%), Dynamo's defensive edge, and Karpaty's high clean sheet percentage lead to a higher probability of a No Goal/No Goal scenario (estimated 35% 'yes' vs 65% 'no').
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals are estimated at ~1.66 for Dynamo and 1.39 for Karpaty, total 3.05; values derived as the average of offensive xG and opponent defensive xG (Dynamo xG_for 1.89 vs Karpaty xG_against 1.44; Karpaty xG_for 1.45 vs Dynamo xG_against 1.33). A Poisson model with λ=3.05 yields P(Over 1.5) ≈81% (P≥2), P(Over 2.5) ≈59% (P≥3) and P(Over 3.5) ≈36% (P≥4). Dynamo is in excellent form: 15 goals in the last 5 matches (avg 3.0) and five straight wins (WWWWW), while Karpaty have 9 goals in their last 5 (1.8) with form LLDWW, which increases the likelihood of a higher-scoring game. Seasonal indicators further support an attacking affair: Dynamo over0.5 at home in 91% of matches and over1.5 in 73%; Karpaty over0.5 away in 90% and over1.5 in 70%. In light of these figures the best line to play is Over 1.5 (side: over, line: 1.5) — the strongest signal (81% vs 19%) with relatively low risk; Over 2.5 remains moderately probable (59%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I select the 1/1 scenario (Dynamo leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time) as the most likely outcome because Dynamo have won all 5 of their last 5 matches (100%) and scored an average of 1.2 goals by the break in those games. The home side posts a higher offensive xG (1.89 vs 1.45 for Karpaty) and registers more shots (15.45 vs 12.8) and more shots on target (5.55 vs 5.0), indicating better chance creation. Season-long figures introduce some uncertainty — Karpaty have a higher season win rate (40% vs the home side’s 18%) and have led at the break more often across the season (40% vs 27%) — so I retain a meaningful probability for half-time draws and for a turnaround by the visitors after the break. Additionally, Dynamo have conceded only 0.4 goals per game on average over the last 5 matches versus 1.0 for Karpaty, which supports the hypothesis that the home side will maintain their lead through Full-Time.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Dynamo Kyiv | Karpaty | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Dynamo Kyiv is 114% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / match - Dynamo Kyiv · 1.4 pts / match - Karpaty
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Dynamo Kyiv is 69% better for: goals scored per match.
2.33 goals / match - Dynamo Kyiv · 1.38 goals / match - Karpaty
Dynamo Kyiv is 13% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.1 goals / match - Dynamo Kyiv · 1.24 goals / match - Karpaty
Dynamo Kyiv scores in 95% of matches (20 of 21 matches), while Karpaty keeps a clean sheet in 38% (8 of 21 matches).
Karpaty scores in 71% of matches (15 of 21 matches), while Dynamo Kyiv keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Dynamo Kyiv
Over / Under - Karpaty
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Dynamo Kyiv is 43% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.9 pts / match - Dynamo Kyiv · 1.33 pts / match - Karpaty
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Dynamo Kyiv - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 57% of matches and wins 57%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Karpaty - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 29%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 100% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +8 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +4 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (13 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (6 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Dynamo Kyiv
Karpaty
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ukrainian Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Dynamo Kyiv | Liga | Karpaty | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.43 | 2.56 | • 2.62 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 42% | • 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 76% | 47% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 29% | 35% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 90% | 70% | • 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 74% | ▲ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Dynamo Kyiv 0 - 1 - 0 Karpaty. Average goals 6.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty?
The Ukrainian Premier League match finished Dynamo Kyiv 0:1 Karpaty. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty?
Dynamo Kyiv score 2.33 goals per game on average and Karpaty 1.38. The Ukrainian Premier League average is 2.56 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Dynamo Kyiv's matches and 43% of Karpaty's.
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Karpaty in?
Over the last 5 games Dynamo Kyiv have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and Karpaty 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.