Džiugas Telšiai vs Hegelmann Litauen: match statistics

Džiugas Telšiai have a clearly superior season record: 12 wins and 37 goals scored, while Hegelmann Litauen have won just 4 times and scored 27 goals. At home, the hosts average 1.36 goals scored and 1.07 conceded, whereas the visitors score only 0.83 goals away from home and concede 2.00. Džiugas also hold the edge in chance creation: their average xG stands at 1.17 compared with Hegelmann’s 0.97, while the hosts’ opponents are limited to an xG of 1.18. The visitors have lost 58% of their away matches, keeping a clean sheet in only 17% of them, which supports the prospect of a goalscoring advantage for the hosts. Both teams have an identically poor record over their last five matches, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, but home advantage and a more stable defence point towards Džiugas.

Džiugas records BTTS in 79% of matches, well above the league average of 48%, while Hegelmann has recorded this outcome in 50% of games. The hosts score an average of 1.21 goals, whereas the visitors concede as many as 2.00 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in only 17% of their appearances. Hegelmann’s chances of scoring are further supported by the fact that Džiugas concede an average of 1.29 goals, while they have allowed 1.8 goals per game across their last five matches. However, the hosts’ attacking form has been less consistent, with BTTS landing in only 40% of their matches over the last five rounds and an average of 1.0 goals scored. Despite this, Džiugas’ xG over their last five matches stands at 1.45, while both defenses allow opponents approximately 1.5-1.65 xG, giving a moderate edge to the scenario in which both teams score.

The strongest signal points to at least two goals: the 1.5-goal threshold was surpassed in 86% of Džiugas matches and as many as 92% of Hegelmann matches. The hosts should have greater attacking potential, as they average 1.21 goals, register 3.71 shots on target per match, while their opponents concede an average of 2.00 goals. Hegelmann score only 0.83 goals per game, but Džiugas allow opponents an xG of 1.50, making a goal for the visitors a realistic scenario. The combined expected xG of both sides and their defensive profiles point to approximately 2.53 goals, but the 2.5 line is considerably less clear-cut, as it was covered in 36% of the hosts’ matches and 50% of the visitors’ matches this season. At the same time, under 3.5 goals was recorded in 71% of Džiugas matches and 75% of Hegelmann matches, limiting the prospect of a very high-scoring game but not undermining the preference for Over 1.5.

Džiugas Telšiai have a clear first-half advantage: they have led at the break in 29% of their matches, while Hegelmann have been behind at half-time in as many as 50% of games. The hosts average 0.64 goals scored and 0.50 conceded before the break, whereas the visitors score just 0.33 goals and allow opponents 1.17. Over the full match, the Telšiai side also create slightly higher-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.23 compared with the visitors’ 0.97, and record 3.71 shots on target per game versus Hegelmann’s 2.08. In addition, Hegelmann concede an average of 2.00 goals away from home, meaning an early lead for the hosts has a realistic chance of being maintained until the final whistle. Therefore, the scenario in which Džiugas lead at half-time and win after 90 minutes is the strongest single HT/FT outcome.