Eastleigh vs Carlisle United: match statistics
Carlisle United sits 3rd in the table and displays significantly better form than Eastleigh (15th position). The visitors hold an impressive record of 56% away wins and a positive goal difference (+2) on the road, while the hosts have recorded a negative balance (-6) at home. Carlisle averages 4.81 shots on target per away match compared to 3.69 for the hosts, indicating greater offensive efficiency. Eastleigh concedes an average of 1.81 goals in home matches, which, combined with a weak defense (only 6% clean sheets), makes them vulnerable to dropping points. The recent form of both teams (1.8 PPG for Carlisle vs 1.6 for Eastleigh) and the clear qualitative advantage of the visitors argue for their victory in this encounter.
Eastleigh vs Carlisle United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Eastleigh played Carlisle United in National League (England). The match was played on 28 February 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Eastleigh: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Carlisle United: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Eastleigh scores 1.26 and concedes 1.71 goals per match. Carlisle United scores 1.82 and concedes 1.21. League average: 2.90 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Eastleigh 68%, Carlisle United 50%. Over 2.5: Eastleigh 56%, Carlisle United 59%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Carlisle United has higher xG: 1.84 vs 1.31. Eastleigh: 9.3 shots per match, Carlisle United: 14.7.
Match halves
Eastleigh: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.82. Carlisle United: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.94.
Goals by minute
Eastleigh: 46-60 (11 goals). Carlisle United: 16-30 (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National League: 2.90 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Carlisle United sits 3rd in the table and displays significantly better form than Eastleigh (15th position). The visitors hold an impressive record of 56% away wins and a positive goal difference (+2) on the road, while the hosts have recorded a negative balance (-6) at home. Carlisle averages 4.81 shots on target per away match compared to 3.69 for the hosts, indicating greater offensive efficiency. Eastleigh concedes an average of 1.81 goals in home matches, which, combined with a weak defense (only 6% clean sheets), makes them vulnerable to dropping points. The recent form of both teams (1.8 PPG for Carlisle vs 1.6 for Eastleigh) and the clear qualitative advantage of the visitors argue for their victory in this encounter.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Eastleigh | Carlisle United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Carlisle United is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Eastleigh · 1.8 pts / match - Carlisle United
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Carlisle United is 44% better for: goals scored per match.
1.26 goals / match - Eastleigh · 1.82 goals / match - Carlisle United
Carlisle United is 41% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.71 goals / match - Eastleigh · 1.21 goals / match - Carlisle United
Eastleigh scores in 74% of matches (25 of 34 matches), while Carlisle United keeps a clean sheet in 35% (12 of 34 matches).
Carlisle United scores in 85% of matches (29 of 34 matches), while Eastleigh keeps a clean sheet in 9% (3 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Eastleigh
Over / Under - Carlisle United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Carlisle United is 50% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.06 pts / match - Eastleigh · 1.59 pts / match - Carlisle United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Eastleigh - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Carlisle United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 62%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 80% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (11 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (17). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (14 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Eastleigh
Carlisle United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National League).
Teams vs league
| Eastleigh | Liga | Carlisle United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.97 | 2.90 | ▲ 3.03 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 68% | 57% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 56% | 56% | ▲ 59% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 9% | 24% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 56% | 72% | ▲ 79% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 85% | 80% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Eastleigh 0 - 1 - 0 Carlisle United. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Eastleigh vs Carlisle United?
The National League match finished Eastleigh 1:2 Carlisle United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Eastleigh vs Carlisle United?
Eastleigh score 1.26 goals per game on average and Carlisle United 1.82. The National League average is 2.90 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 68% of Eastleigh's matches and 50% of Carlisle United's.
What form are Eastleigh and Carlisle United in?
Over the last 5 games Eastleigh have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Carlisle United 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Eastleigh vs Carlisle United?
The statistical background for Eastleigh vs Carlisle United — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.