Edinburgh City vs Annan Athletic: match statistics

Edinburgh City have the better record over their last five matches, with 3 wins and 10 goals scored, while Annan Athletic have lost 4 of their last 5 games and scored just 5 goals in that run. However, the key factor is the hosts’ home form: in their only home match, they suffered a 0:5 defeat, failed to score, and allowed the opposition an xG of 1.36 compared with their own xG of 1.07. Annan, by contrast, won their only away match so far 1:0, keeping a clean sheet; their defence allowed just 0.71 xG in that game. The visitors are less active in front of goal, averaging 3 attempts away from home compared with Edinburgh City’s 7 at home, but their conversion rate stands at 33%, while the hosts failed to convert any chances in their home match. Given the significant difference in the teams’ performances and structure of play at these venues so far, an Annan Athletic victory appears slightly more likely.

The signal for both teams to score is driven primarily by Edinburgh City’s profile: the hosts averaged 1.5 goals scored but conceded as many as 3.0 per match and failed to keep a single clean sheet. In their last five matches, Edinburgh scored 2.0 goals per game, while Annan conceded 2.2, clearly increasing the hosts’ chances of finding the net. Annan have more modest attacking potential, with an average xG of 0.76 and just 3.0 shots per match, but Edinburgh allowed opponents an xG of 1.04 in their last five appearances and conceded 8 goals. Annan’s latest BTTS rate stands at 60%, compared with 40% for Edinburgh, while the league average is 47%, so current-form data gives a slight positive edge to the scenario in which both teams score. The pick is moderately strong, as Annan’s excellent season-long defensive record, with no goals conceded, remains a significant argument against BTTS. BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically indicate a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

Edinburgh City have averaged 2.0 goals in their last 5 matches, while Annan Athletic have conceded 2.2 goals per game over the same period, which clearly strengthens the hosts’ attacking potential. The visitors have scored an average of 1.0 goal, whereas Edinburgh City have allowed opponents 1.6 goals, making an Annan goal a realistic scenario as well. In their last five appearances, matches featuring at least 3 goals accounted for 80% of the hosts’ games and 60% of the visitors’ games, compared with a league average of 60%. The combined projected xG is 2.80, while the hosts average 5.0 shots on target compared with Annan’s 3.0. Therefore, the most stable option remains Over 1.5 goals, providing protection against the exact two-goal outcome.

Edinburgh City are showing clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and conceding 1.6, while Annan Athletic have suffered 4 defeats, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 2.2 conceded. The hosts frequently start matches well, having led at the break in 80% of their last 5 appearances, with an average of 1.6 goals scored before half-time; the visitors were ahead at that stage in only 20% of matches and conceded an average of 1.2 goals. Edinburgh City’s superiority in chance creation is also reflected in the average xG figures of 1.33 versus 0.76 and in shots on target, 5.0 to 3.0. Annan have managed to keep a clean sheet in their only away match so far, but their weaker recent run and an 80% defeat rate across their last five matches support the expectation that the hosts will maintain their lead through to full-time.