Egersund vs Raufoss: match statistics

Egersund holds a clear home advantage: 100% home wins (3 of 3), averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per match, with 100% clean sheets at home. Raufoss struggles away — 0 wins, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per match, and failing to score in 50% of away games. The quality gap is visible in xG and shots: Egersund at home posts xG 1.54 and averages 15 shots with 3 on target (conversion ~13%), while Raufoss away has xG 0.68, 7 shots and only 0.5 on target (conversion ~7%). Form and recent results reinforce this picture — Egersund scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches and averages 1.8 points per game, whereas Raufoss has 4 goals and 0.4 points per game and conceded 11 goals over the same period. Given the hosts' defensive stability and the visitors' poor away efficiency, the higher probability favors an Egersund victory.

Raufoss averages 0.5 goals away with an xG of 0.68 and only 0.5 shots on target per game, which significantly limits their scoring chances. Egersund at home generates more chances: season xG 1.29, last 5 xG 1.52 and scores 2.0 goals per game on average (10 goals in 5), with home SOT average 3.5, so the hosts are more likely to score. Egersund’s defense looks better short-term — seasonally they concede 2.0 goals per game, but in the last 5 they concede only 1.0 (5 conceded), which reduces the probability of a Raufoss goal despite the visitors having last 5 xG 1.09 and 0.8 goals per game. BTTS indicators are mixed: season BTTS is 100% for Egersund at home vs 50% for Raufoss, while in the last 5 it’s 40% (Egersund) vs 80% (Raufoss), however Raufoss’s low away efficiency (0.5 goals and 0.5 SOT) weakens the BTTS signal. Overall I give 35% for BTTS - Yes and 65% for No — the strongest signal is Raufoss’s weak attack against Egersund’s solid xG and form, so it’s more likely the visitors will not score.

Based on xG and defensive metrics, I anticipate a clear bias toward goals: Egersund has an attacking xG of 1.29, while Raufoss concedes an average xG against of 2.25, resulting in roughly 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Raufoss generates xG 0.68, whereas Egersund allows xG against 1.23, which translates to about 0.96 expected goals for the visitors; total expected goals equal 2.73. A Poisson model with a mean of 2.73 yields P(>=2) ≈76% (over 1.5), P(>=3) ≈51% (over 2.5) and P(>=4) ≈29% (over 3.5). Local data confirm this: Egersund at home has 100% of matches over 1.5 goals this season, they scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 average) and 80% of their recent games were over 2.5, while Raufoss averages only 0.5 on-target shots away. Therefore the strongest signal is the over 1.5 line; over 2.5 is moderately favored (~52%), and over 3.5 appears unlikely (~29%).

Egersund holds a clear advantage in form and in the first half: in the last 5 matches they have won 3 times (60%) and led at the break in 3 of 5 fixtures (60%), averaging 1.2 goals by half-time. Shot-creation statistics confirm this superiority — the home side’s xG is 1.29 versus 0.68 for Raufoss, and average on-target shots are 3.5 compared to 0.5 for the visitors. Raufoss have had no wins recently (last 5 matches: 0% wins) and seasonally concede an average of 2.25 xG per game, so the risk of a turnaround is limited, even though they average 0.5 goals in the second half over the season. On this basis the safest scenario is Egersund leading at half-time and winning after 90 minutes — I assign this a 40% probability; alternatively X/1 15% and X/X 10% as less likely. Comebacks after the break (all other variants combined 20%) I rate as unlikely due to Egersund’s advantage in xG, on-target shots and superior average goals by half-time.