Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Skënderbeu Korçë: match statistics

Egnatia Rrogozhinë have the home advantage: they won their only home match so far 3:0, recording 5 shots on target from 11 attempts and keeping a clean sheet. Skënderbeu Korçë drew 2:2 away from home, and despite registering 8 shots on target and 14 total attempts, they conceded 2 goals and allowed chances valued at 1.71 xG. The hosts are more clinical, converting 27% of their shots compared with 14% for the visitors, although the away side generate slightly higher average xG: 1.81 versus 1.37. Their form over the last five matches is similar, but Egnatia have scored 10 goals compared with Skënderbeu’s 8; the hosts’ more solid defence, which conceded 6 goals compared with 4 for their opponents during this period, combined with their stronger home performance, slightly tips the balance in their favour. A draw remains a realistic outcome, as the visitors have lost none of their last five matches and are coming off an away draw.

The case for goals from both sides is based primarily on recent form: Egnatia averaged 2.0 goals, while Skënderbeu averaged 1.6 goals in their previous five matches. During this period, the hosts conceded 1.2 goals per game, compared with 0.8 for the visitors, which does not indicate completely watertight defences. BTTS occurred in 60% of Egnatia’s last five matches and in 40% of Skënderbeu’s games, while the league average stands at 63%. Egnatia created an average of 1.52 xG, while Skënderbeu recorded 1.12 xG, with 1.36 and 1.34 xG conceded respectively, giving both teams a basis for creating scoring chances. The BTTS - Yes pick is moderately stronger, although the hosts’ season data is incomplete, so the edge over the scenario in which at least one team fails to score is not significant.

In their last 5 matches, Egnatia scored an average of 2.0 goals and conceded 1.2, resulting in a high average of 3.2 total goals per game. Skënderbeu have a lower but still goal-friendly profile: 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match, averaging 2.4 total goals. The hosts' attacking potential is supported by an xG of 1.52, while the visitors allow an average xG of 1.34, so the hosts should create several high-quality chances. The projected total of 2.72 goals is clearly above the 1.5 line, while Over 1.5 is further supported by the fact that 80% of Egnatia's recent matches and 40% of Skënderbeu's games went over 2.5 goals. The Over 1.5 line is the safest choice, as it requires only two goals to land, while the data for both teams points to a realistic scoreline in the region of 2-3 goals.

The strongest signal points to Egnatia holding the advantage before the break: in their last five matches, the hosts were leading at half-time in 60% of games, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding just 0.2. Skënderbeu were not trailing at half-time during this run, but they drew in as many as 60% of cases, while their attacking output in the first halves was just 0.6 goals per match. After the interval, the statistical pattern clearly turns around: Egnatia score an average of only 0.2 goals and concede 1.0, whereas the visitors score 1.0 goal. Skënderbeu also have the better points record across their last five matches, 1.6 compared with 1.4, and concede fewer goals overall, 0.8 compared with 1.2. The scenario in which the hosts lead at half-time before the visitors level the score best combines Egnatia’s strong start with Skënderbeu’s greater resilience late in the game.