Eintracht Braunschweig vs Dynamo Dresden: match statistics

Both teams have lost all of their matches to date in their respective home and away roles, but Eintracht Braunschweig has slightly more favorable chance-quality numbers: their average home xG stands at 1.83, compared with Dynamo’s 1.49 away from home. The hosts also record more shots per match—17 compared with their opponents’ 13.5—and get more efforts on target, averaging 6 versus 4.5. Both defenses are highly error-prone, but Dynamo concede as many as 4 goals per away game and allow an average of 2.32 xG, while Braunschweig concede 3 goals and 1.94 xG at home. The visitors have enjoyed the better recent trend, winning 2 of their last five matches compared with one victory for the hosts, but their away goal difference of -5 and lack of clean sheets marginally favor Eintracht to make the most of home advantage. The match should produce plenty of chances, as neither team has kept a clean sheet, while the average total goals in their respective home and away matches stands at 4.5 and 5.5.

The BTTS pick is primarily supported by the teams’ current attacking form: Eintracht have scored an average of 2.4 goals in their last 5 matches, while Dynamo have averaged 2.2. Both sides have also regularly allowed opponents to create chances, conceding 2.8 and 2.0 goals per match respectively over this period. The hosts have recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five appearances, with an average xG of 2.09 and 1.69 xG allowed to opponents. Dynamo have not kept a clean sheet in the league, while their away defence concedes as many as 4.0 goals on average, so Eintracht should find a way to score. However, the visitors create an average of 1.49 xG per match and face a Braunschweig side that have conceded 14 goals in their last five matches, which also increases the likelihood of them finding the net.

The match profile points towards goals: in their last five games, Braunschweig scored an average of 2.4 goals and conceded 2.8, while Dynamo averaged 2.2 and 2.0 respectively. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of the last five matches played by both teams, while the league-wide average stands at a high 3.64 goals per game. Dynamo have yet to keep a clean sheet and concede an average of 4.0 goals, while Braunschweig generate an average of 1.50 xG, clearly strengthening the hosts’ attacking potential. The visitors also have grounds to respond, as their average xG stands at 1.49, compared with 1.32 xG conceded by Braunschweig. However, the safest edge lies with Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have had at least two goals in the match in 100% of Dynamo’s games to date and 50% of Braunschweig’s matches.

Eintracht have a clearly stronger home record: they score an average of 1.0 goals, concede 1.0, and have won 50% of their matches, while Dynamo have lost every away fixture and conceded as many as 4.0 goals per game. The hosts should be able to exploit the visitors’ defensive weakness, particularly as their average xG stands at 1.50, while Dresden allow opponents an xG of 2.32. In the first half, Braunschweig score an average of 1.0 goals compared with Dynamo’s 0.5, and both teams have led at the break in 50% of their matches so far. The form over the last five games suggests potential for goals at both ends, but despite averaging 2.2 goals scored, Dynamo lost 60% of those matches. The most likely scenario is therefore that Eintracht take the lead before half-time and hold on to it until the final whistle, taking advantage of the visitors’ very poor away defence. The recommended HT/FT pick is 1/1.