El Geish vs Ghazl El Mehalla: match statistics
El Geish vs Ghazl El Mehalla: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
El Geish played Ghazl El Mehalla in Egyptian Premier League (Egypt). The match was played on 7 May 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
El Geish: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Ghazl El Mehalla: 1-4-0, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
El Geish scores 0.64 and concedes 1.04 goals per match. Ghazl El Mehalla scores 0.71 and concedes 0.71. League average: 2.00 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: El Geish 29%, Ghazl El Mehalla 39%. Over 2.5: El Geish 29%, Ghazl El Mehalla 21%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 33%.
xG, shots and style
El Geish has higher xG: 1.25 vs 1.12. El Geish: 11.2 shots per match, Ghazl El Mehalla: 8.9.
Match halves
El Geish: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.36. Ghazl El Mehalla: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.39.
Goals by minute
El Geish: 76-90+ (5 goals). Ghazl El Mehalla: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Egyptian Premier League: 2.00 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 33%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I expect a draw: Ghazl El Mehalla draws unusually often away (54% of away matches) and in the last 5 games recorded 4 draws and 1 win, translating to an average of 1.4 points in that period versus 1.0 point for El Geish. El Geish at home generates significantly more chances (avg. 12.62 shots, 3.31 on target and xG 1.35) than the visitors (8.69 shots, 2.62 on target and xG 1.09), which is the hosts’ main advantage. However, finishing favors Ghazl — conversion 12% versus 7% for El Geish and an average of 1.08 away goals versus 0.85 home goals, so the visitors can capitalize on limited opportunities. Defensively El Geish performs better at home (0.92 goals conceded at home vs 1.08 conceded by Ghazl away and xG against 1.25 vs 1.44), which constrains the opponents’ goal threat. Considering these figures I assign 30% probability to a home win, 45% to a draw and 25% to an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Dominant signal argues against BTTS: El Geish at home has a seasonal BTTS rate of only 27% and keeps a clean sheet in 73% of matches, with average goals scored 0.4 per game (18 goals this season) and 29 goals conceded this season. In the last 5 matches El Geish had BTTS in only 20% of games, further weakening the prospect of both teams scoring. Ghazl El Mehalla shows the opposite trend — seasonal BTTS 54% and 60% in the last 5 games, with an average of 1.08 goals this season (20 goals this season) and 1.0 in the last five matches. Key efficiency metrics matter: Ghazl averages 2.62 shots on target and has a 12% conversion rate, while El Geish averages 2.0 shots on target and just 4% conversion; despite comparable xG (1.14 for the home side vs 1.09 for the visitors) the hosts do not convert xG into goals (0.4 average). Considering league BTTS 46% and clean sheet rate 69%, plus El Geish’s home advantage (73% clean sheets at home), I synthesize the probability of BTTS 'No' at 75% and 'Yes' at 25% and recommend a 'No' bet as the strongest signal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
El Geish has an attacking xG of 1.14, while Ghazl El Mehalla has 1.09; xG against for these teams is 1.24 (home) and 1.44 (away) respectively. Averaging these values yields expected goals of 1.29 for El Geish and 1.17 for Ghazl, total 2.46, which is above the league average of 2.0. A Poisson distribution with lambda=2.46 gives probability of Over 1.5 at about 71% (P(0 or 1) ≈ 29%), Over 2.5 around 45% and Over 3.5 around 24%. Additionally, El Geish scores on average only 0.4 goals with a shot conversion rate of 4%, while Ghazl averages 1.08 goals with a 12% conversion; El Geish also has 73% clean sheets, and Ghazl’s BTTS rate is 54%, therefore the strongest data signal supports playing Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
El Geish were level at the break in 80% of their matches, while Ghazl El Mehalla were level at the break in 54% of their games, which strongly favors a draw at half-time. The home side kept a clean sheet at half-time in 87% of matches and have 73% clean sheets over the whole season, and their average goals by half-time is 0.13 versus 0.54 for the visitors, so many first halves are low-scoring. xG is similar (1.14 for the hosts vs 1.09 for the visitors), but the away side converts better (12% vs 4%), which increases the risk of a turnaround after the break in favor of the visitors. In the second half Ghazl average 0.54 goals versus 0.27 for El Geish, therefore the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario draw at half-time and away win (X/2) carries significant weight alongside draw/draw. On that basis the strongest signal is draw at half-time and draw at full-time (X/X).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| El Geish | Ghazl El Mehalla | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 26% | 26% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ghazl El Mehalla is 40% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - El Geish · 1.4 pts / match - Ghazl El Mehalla
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ghazl El Mehalla is 11% better for: goals scored per match.
0.64 goals / match - El Geish · 0.71 goals / match - Ghazl El Mehalla
Ghazl El Mehalla is 46% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.04 goals / match - El Geish · 0.71 goals / match - Ghazl El Mehalla
El Geish scores in 46% of matches (13 of 28 matches), while Ghazl El Mehalla keeps a clean sheet in 57% (16 of 28 matches).
Ghazl El Mehalla scores in 50% of matches (14 of 28 matches), while El Geish keeps a clean sheet in 39% (11 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - El Geish
Over / Under - Ghazl El Mehalla
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
El Geish - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ghazl El Mehalla - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 14%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
El Geish
Ghazl El Mehalla
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Egyptian Premier League).
Teams vs league
| El Geish | Liga | Ghazl El Mehalla | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.68 | 2.00 | ▼ 1.43 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 29% | 46% | ▼ 39% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 29% | 33% | ▼ 21% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 39% | 35% | ▲ 57% |
| Goal before half-time | • 57% | 57% | ▼ 36% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 61% | 70% | ▼ 50% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Ghazl El MehallaSubstitutionOn: Mohamed AshrafOff: Ahmed Mohamed Ahmed Osman Ahmed Mohamed Ahmed Osman
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: El Geish 0 - 1 - 0 Ghazl El Mehalla. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of El Geish vs Ghazl El Mehalla?
The Egyptian Premier League match finished El Geish 1:0 Ghazl El Mehalla. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before El Geish vs Ghazl El Mehalla?
El Geish score 0.64 goals per game on average and Ghazl El Mehalla 0.71. The Egyptian Premier League average is 2.00 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 33% of games. Both teams score in 29% of El Geish's matches and 39% of Ghazl El Mehalla's.
What form are El Geish and Ghazl El Mehalla in?
Over the last 5 games El Geish have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Ghazl El Mehalla 1-4-0 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for El Geish vs Ghazl El Mehalla?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.