El Gounah vs Haras El Hodood: match statistics
El Gounah vs Haras El Hodood: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
El Gounah played Haras El Hodood in Egyptian Premier League (Egypt). The match was played on 29 April 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
El Gounah: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Haras El Hodood: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
El Gounah scores 0.69 and concedes 0.62 goals per match. Haras El Hodood scores 0.77 and concedes 1.46. League average: 1.98 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: El Gounah 35%, Haras El Hodood 46%. Over 2.5: El Gounah 12%, Haras El Hodood 42%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 32%.
xG, shots and style
El Gounah has higher xG: 1.18 vs 1.11. El Gounah: 10.1 shots per match, Haras El Hodood: 9.0.
Match halves
El Gounah: half-time lead 8%, second-half goals 0.54. Haras El Hodood: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.31.
Goals by minute
El Gounah: 76-90+ (8 goals). Haras El Hodood: 0-15 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Egyptian Premier League: 1.98 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 32%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
El Gounah are the favorites mainly due to their defence and recent form: in the last 5 matches they are 2-2-1, scoring 2 and conceding 1 (1.6 pts/match), while Haras El Hodood are 0-2-3 with only 0.4 pts/match, scoring 5 and conceding 9. At home El Gounah concede 0.75 goals per game versus 1.67 conceded by Haras away, and xG against is 1.08 vs 1.69, which confirms the visitors' defensive weakness. In attack the hosts create more chances: 11.33 shots per match and 2.83 on target at home with xG 1.27, whereas the visitors have 8.67 shots and xG 1.05; conversion rate is higher for the visitors (7% vs 5%) but they have fewer opportunities. Additionally El Gounah keep a clean sheet in 42% of home matches, while Haras only 17% away, so I expect a narrow, low-scoring home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal BTTS rates are 50% for El Gounah and 42% for Haras El Hodood, versus a league average of 46%, yielding a neutral to moderate BTTS signal. However, the last 5 matches show divergence: El Gounah has 0% BTTS, scoring 2 and conceding 1 (avg 0.4 scored, 0.2 conceded), while Haras has 60% BTTS with 5 scored and 9 conceded (avg 1.0 and 1.8). xG metrics indicate both teams create chances (El Gounah 1.15 season xG and 1.13 in last 5; Haras 1.05 season and 1.01 in last 5), but El Gounah converts poorly (0.93 goals seasonally and 0.4 in last 5), signaling finishing issues. Defensively Haras concedes heavily over the season (avg 1.67, 38 total), yet El Gounah has conceded only 1 goal in their last 5, which lowers the likelihood of both teams scoring. Considering El Gounah’s low recent real conversion (0.4) versus Haras’s recent vulnerability (1.8 conceded in last 5) and the seasonal BTTS trends, I tip No Goal (BTTS "no") at 60% probability versus 40% for BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG-based model: El Gounah has xG_for 1.15 per match while Haras El Hodood concedes xG 1.69, yielding an estimated 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Conversely, Haras generates xG 1.05 and El Gounah concedes xG 1.46, translating to about 1.26 expected goals for the away side; total expected goals ≈ 2.68. Using a Poisson distribution with λ=2.68 we get P(over 1.5) ≈ 75%, P(over 2.5) ≈ 50% and P(over 3.5) ≈ 28%, which aligns with seasonal figures: El Gounah has 57% of matches >1.5, Haras 58%, while El Gounah records 50% of matches >2.5 and Haras 33%. Additionally, El Gounah averages 9.21 shots with 2.79 on target (conversion 10%), Haras 8.67 with 2.58 on target (conversion 7%), and Haras has conceded 38 goals this season, supporting a higher-scoring scenario despite seasonal average goals (0.93 and 0.58) being lower than xG. Consequently the strongest signal is over 1.5 (play: over) at about 75% probability; the 2.5 line remains balanced (~50/50), while 3.5 favors under (~72% under).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a draw at Full-Time (X/X) — I assign it a 36% probability because the home side drew at the break in 43% of matches and the away side in 42%. The second strongest signal is a draw at Half-Time and a home victory at Full-Time (X/1) with a 27% probability, justified by the fact that the home team scores on average 0.43 goals in the second half while the away team concedes on average 0.92 goals after the break. For the match outcome overall I predict a 49% chance of a Full-Time draw, 39% for a home win and 12% for an away win — these proportions are driven in part by the home team’s superior xG of 1.15 versus the visitors’ 1.05 and a higher shot conversion rate of 10% versus 7%. Additionally, the home side have a 40% win rate in their last five matches while the away side have 0%, and the away team conceded as many as 8 goals in minutes 76–90 compared to 3 conceded by the home team in that period, which strengthens scenarios for a home turnaround after Half-Time. Taking into account the higher frequency of draws at the break (43%/42%) and the visitors’ poorer away form (an average of 0.42 points per away match this season versus 1.07 for hosts), I select X/X as the best pick.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| El Gounah | Haras El Hodood | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
El Gounah is 300% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - El Gounah · 0.4 pts / match - Haras El Hodood
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Haras El Hodood is 12% better for: goals scored per match.
0.69 goals / match - El Gounah · 0.77 goals / match - Haras El Hodood
El Gounah is 135% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.62 goals / match - El Gounah · 1.46 goals / match - Haras El Hodood
El Gounah scores in 62% of matches (16 of 26 matches), while Haras El Hodood keeps a clean sheet in 27% (7 of 26 matches).
Haras El Hodood scores in 58% of matches (15 of 26 matches), while El Gounah keeps a clean sheet in 50% (13 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - El Gounah
Over / Under - Haras El Hodood
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
El Gounah is 5% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.92 pts / match - El Gounah · 0.88 pts / match - Haras El Hodood
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
El Gounah - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 8% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Haras El Hodood - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 15%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -10 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
El Gounah
Haras El Hodood
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Egyptian Premier League).
Teams vs league
| El Gounah | Liga | Haras El Hodood | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.31 | 1.98 | ▲ 2.23 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 35% | 46% | • 46% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 12% | 32% | ▲ 42% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 35% | ▼ 27% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 38% | 56% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 62% | 70% | ▼ 50% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: El Gounah 0 - 0 - 1 Haras El Hodood. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of El Gounah vs Haras El Hodood?
The Egyptian Premier League match finished El Gounah 1:1 Haras El Hodood. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before El Gounah vs Haras El Hodood?
El Gounah score 0.69 goals per game on average and Haras El Hodood 0.77. The Egyptian Premier League average is 1.98 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 32% of games. Both teams score in 35% of El Gounah's matches and 46% of Haras El Hodood's.
What form are El Gounah and Haras El Hodood in?
Over the last 5 games El Gounah have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Haras El Hodood 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for El Gounah vs Haras El Hodood?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.