El Paso Locomotive vs Tulsa Roughnecks: match statistics
El Paso Locomotive vs Tulsa Roughnecks: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
El Paso Locomotive played Tulsa Roughnecks in USL Championship (United States). The match was played on 30 April 2026. Final score: 1:4.
Current form
El Paso Locomotive: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Tulsa Roughnecks: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
El Paso Locomotive scores 2.67 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Tulsa Roughnecks scores 0.83 and concedes 1.17. League average: 2.60 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: El Paso Locomotive 67%, Tulsa Roughnecks 50%. Over 2.5: El Paso Locomotive 100%, Tulsa Roughnecks 17%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
xG is very similar for both teams. El Paso Locomotive: 12.7 shots per match, Tulsa Roughnecks: 13.2.
Match halves
El Paso Locomotive: half-time lead 67%, second-half goals 1.00. Tulsa Roughnecks: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
El Paso Locomotive: 46-60 (5 goals). Tulsa Roughnecks: 61-75 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL Championship: 2.60 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 1-2-1. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
El Paso holds a clear advantage on paper and in the table (5th vs 19th Tulsa): at home they average 2.33 goals per game (16 goals this season) and have scored 12 goals in the last five matches, while Tulsa has only 3 goals in their last five and averages 0.5 goals on the road. The hosts register 14.67 shots per game with 6.67 on target at home and a conversion rate of 16%, whereas the visitors average about 16 shots on the road but only 5.5 on target and a mere 3% conversion, which clearly highlights Tulsa’s finishing issues. Differences in chance quality are confirmed by xG: El Paso records 1.72 xG in home matches versus Tulsa’s 1.87 xG away, meaning Tulsa creates decent chances but converts them too rarely (0.5 goals on average from 1.87 xG); additionally Tulsa fail to score in half of their away games (50% shutout rate against), while El Paso does not have this problem (0% home matches without a goal). Defensively both teams are vulnerable — El Paso concedes 2.33 goals per home game on average and let in 10 goals in the last 5 matches, and Tulsa concedes 1.5 goals on the road and 7 in their last five; absence of clean sheets on both sides and a high average goal count in El Paso’s home matches (4.67) suggest an open, high-scoring game. Given the hosts’ markedly better finishing, El Paso’s lack of scoreless home games and form (1.8 points per game in the last five vs Tulsa’s 1.0), I predict an El Paso win; probabilities estimated at approximately 70% home, 18% draw and 12% away.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I project BTTS - Yes at 70% vs 30%. In the last 5 matches El Paso had BTTS in 80% (4/5) and Tulsa in 40% (2/5), while season-to-date both teams sit at 50% BTTS and the league average is 52%. Tulsa has kept 0 clean sheets this season (0% CS) and concedes 1.5 goals per game seasonally and 1.4 over the last 5, whereas El Paso has scored 12 goals in the last 5 (2.4 per game) and averages 1.0 goals per game on the season. xG indicates Tulsa generates 1.87 xG per game versus 1.05 xG against El Paso, and Tulsa’s shot volume of 16.0 with 5.5 on target compared to El Paso’s 11.75 and 3.25 suggests realistic scoring opportunities despite Tulsa’s low conversion rate of 3% (vs 9% El Paso). Overall, Tulsa’s xG creation, lack of clean sheets and El Paso’s recent scoring form (12 goals/5) support a Both Teams To Score outcome.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model gives expected_goals_home = 1.24 (average of El Paso attack xG 1.36 and Tulsa defense xG 1.11) and expected_goals_away = 1.46 (average of Tulsa attack xG 1.87 and El Paso defense xG 1.05), totaling 2.70 goals. El Paso have averaged 2.4 goals in their last 5 matches (12 goals in 5) and have 100% of matches Over 2.5 in that period, while Tulsa have scored 3 goals in their last 5 (0.6 per match) with only 20% Over 2.5, indicating an asymmetry that increases result volatility. Tulsa generate many shots (16.0 avg and 5.5 on target) and a season xG of 1.87, but have a low conversion rate of 3% and only 5 away goals this season, so creation is high but finishing is limited. Given the total xG = 2.70 and the league average 2.6, the 2.5 line looks optimal; therefore I back Over 2.5 with an estimated probability of 62%. I rate Over 1.5 at 86% due to season Over 1.5 rates of 50%/100% for home and away and El Paso’s recent form, while Over 3.5 is unlikely (28%) given season Over 3.5 rates of 25%/0%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a Half-Time draw followed by an El Paso victory (X/1): the home side have been level at the break in 100% of their seasonal matches (4 of 4) and average 1.0 goals per match versus 0.5 for Tulsa. El Paso shows better form — 60% wins in the last 5 matches (last5_winPercentage_overall_home = 60.0) versus 20% for Tulsa (last5_winPercentage_overall_away = 20.0) and Tulsa have a 0% win rate this season away (winPercentage_away = 0.0). The visitors generate more xG and shots (xG 1.87 vs 1.36; xg_for_avg_away = 1.87 vs xg_for_avg_home = 1.36; on average 16.0 shots and 5.5 on target vs 11.75 and 3.25 for the home side), but their conversion is low (3.0% vs 9.0% for El Paso), translating into only 0.5 goals per game. El Paso frequently score after the break — second-half goals average 1.5 (AVG_2hg_home = 1.5) and 75% of matches have at least one second-half goal (over05_2hg_percentage_home = 75.0), so a Half-Time draw with a turnaround to a home lead in the second half is logical. In my projection the combined chance of a Half-Time draw is 78% (sum of X/* scenarios in the distribution), and individually X/1 has the highest probability, which is why the X/1 pick is the strongest signal given the low probability of an away win (winPercentage_away = 0.0).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| El Paso Locomotive | Tulsa Roughnecks | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 46% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.46 | 0.21 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
El Paso Locomotive is 100% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - El Paso Locomotive · 1.2 pts / match - Tulsa Roughnecks
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
El Paso Locomotive is 222% better for: goals scored per match.
2.67 goals / match - El Paso Locomotive · 0.83 goals / match - Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks is 14% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.33 goals / match - El Paso Locomotive · 1.17 goals / match - Tulsa Roughnecks
El Paso Locomotive scores in 100% of matches (6 of 6 matches), while Tulsa Roughnecks keeps a clean sheet in 17% (1 of 6 matches).
Tulsa Roughnecks scores in 50% of matches (3 of 6 matches), while El Paso Locomotive keeps a clean sheet in 33% (2 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - El Paso Locomotive
Over / Under - Tulsa Roughnecks
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
El Paso Locomotive is 161% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.17 pts / match - El Paso Locomotive · 0.83 pts / match - Tulsa Roughnecks
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
El Paso Locomotive - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 67% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Tulsa Roughnecks - second-half results
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 0% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +6 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (2 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
El Paso Locomotive
Tulsa Roughnecks
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL Championship).
Teams vs league
| El Paso Locomotive | Liga | Tulsa Roughnecks | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 4.00 | 2.60 | ▼ 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 52% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 100% | 51% | ▼ 17% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 30% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 64% | ▼ 33% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 80% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): El Paso Locomotive 1 - 2 - 1 Tulsa Roughnecks. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of El Paso Locomotive vs Tulsa Roughnecks?
The USL Championship match finished El Paso Locomotive 1:4 Tulsa Roughnecks. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between El Paso Locomotive and Tulsa Roughnecks?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches El Paso Locomotive won 1, Tulsa Roughnecks won 1 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before El Paso Locomotive vs Tulsa Roughnecks?
El Paso Locomotive score 2.67 goals per game on average and Tulsa Roughnecks 0.83. The USL Championship average is 2.60 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 67% of El Paso Locomotive's matches and 50% of Tulsa Roughnecks's.
What form are El Paso Locomotive and Tulsa Roughnecks in?
Over the last 5 games El Paso Locomotive have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Tulsa Roughnecks 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for El Paso Locomotive vs Tulsa Roughnecks?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for El Paso Locomotive vs Tulsa Roughnecks: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.