Elana Toruń vs Flota Świnoujście: match statistics

Elana Toruń have a slight edge thanks to home advantage: they score an average of 1.5 goals per home match, while Flota Świnoujście concede 2.2 goals per away game and have yet to keep a clean sheet. In their last five matches, the hosts have scored 7 goals and conceded 7, whereas the visitors have managed just 4 goals and conceded 12, pointing to a clearly tougher spell for Flota. However, the gap in the quality of chances created is small—the average xG is 1.70 for Elana at home and 1.75 for Flota away—so the visitors also have reason to expect to score. Elana will need to remain alert defensively, as their opponents’ home xG against them stands at 1.93, while they concede an average of 1.5 goals. The hosts have drawn half of their home matches, so despite the lean towards a home win, a draw remains a significant possibility.

BTTS - Yes is a slight favorite, as Flota concede an average of 2.2 goals per match and have yet to keep a clean sheet, increasing the likelihood of Elana scoring. The visitors also have attacking credentials: their average xG is 1.75, while Elana concede an average of 1.5 goals per match. However, caution is warranted, as Elana failed to score in 33% of their matches, and Flota failed to find the net in 40% of theirs. BTTS landed in 80% of Elana’s last 5 matches, but in only 40% of Flota’s, in which they scored an average of 0.8 goals. With these mixed signals, Flota’s defensive vulnerability and both teams’ attacking potential give a slight edge to the scenario in which both sides score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been reached in 83% of Elana’s matches and 100% of Flota’s. The hosts score an average of 1.5 goals, while the visitors concede 2.2, pointing to Elana finding the net; Flota also creates chances worth an average xG of 1.75, although it scores only 1.2 goals per match. In their last five games, matches involving the two teams went Over 2.5 goals in 80% and 60% of cases, respectively, but Elana’s season-long record on this line is just 33%. With a projection of 3.2 goals, Over 1.5 therefore offers a clearer signal than the riskier option of backing at least three goals.

The strongest signal for Elana to lead at the break comes from Flota’s form: in their last five matches, the visitors trailed at half-time three times and conceded an average of 1.6 goals in the first half. Over the same period, Elana led at the break twice and kept a clean sheet in the first half four times, limiting Flota’s chances of taking an early lead. The case for the home side to maintain their advantage is also supported by the season-long defensive gap: Flota concede an average of 2.2 goals per match, compared with 1.5 for Elana, while the hosts’ average xG stands at 1.64. Elana also score an average of 1.17 goals after the break, giving them a strong basis to preserve or extend their lead. A half-time draw followed by an Elana win remains a notable possibility, as the hosts score only 0.33 first-half goals per match; however, 1/1 combines Flota’s clear first-half vulnerability with their high overall goals-conceded rate.