Elana Toruń vs Lipno Stęszew: match statistics

Elana Toruń has a clear statistical edge: they have scored 42 goals this season versus Lipno’s 33 and conceded 29 compared to the visitors’ 42. In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 11 goals and average 2.0 points per game, while Lipno has 6 goals and only 0.4 points per game in that period. At home Elana averages 1.73 goals scored and concedes 1.36 per match, whereas Lipno away averages 1.33 scored and 2.17 conceded, indicating a weaker away defence. Quality-of-chances analysis confirms the hosts’ advantage: average xG for Elana is 1.9 versus Lipno’s 1.39, and xG against is 1.08 vs 1.87; the hosts also produce more shots (16.2 vs 11.33) and more shots on target (5.8 vs 4.67). The only risk is Elana’s slightly lower efficiency (conversion rate 11% vs Lipno’s 13%), but a higher clean sheet percentage (27% vs 8%) and the fact that the hosts have 3 wins in the last 5 matches versus Lipno’s 0 wins point towards backing an Elana victory.

Season-long metrics show Elana scores 1.31 and concedes 1.23 per match, while Lipno scores 1.33 and concedes 2.17; season BTTS rates are 46% for Elana and 67% for Lipno. In the last 5 matches Elana had BTTS in 60% of games, and Lipno in all 5 (100%), which is a strong short-term signal in favor of a both teams to score scenario. Additionally, Lipno has only 8% of matches without conceding versus 38% for Elana, and Lipno’s high average conceded 2.17 goals per match indicates opponents regularly find the net. Attacking xG is similar: 1.40 for Elana and 1.39 for Lipno, and average shots on target 4.1 vs 4.67 confirm both teams create scoring opportunities. Considering seasonal and short-term trends (BTTS 46%/67%, last 5 matches 60%/100%, Lipno’s low clean sheet rate 8% and 2.17 average goals conceded), I favor the 'BTTS - Yes' scenario and estimate probability at 78% versus 22% for No BTTS.

I expect 1.64 goals for Elana and 1.46 for Lipno (total 3.10), calculated as the average of attack and defense: Elana’s attacking xG 1.40 versus Lipno’s xG conceded 1.87 gives ~1.64 for the home side, while Lipno’s attacking xG 1.39 against xG conceded by Elana 1.53 yields ~1.46 for the away side. In the last 5 matches Elana averaged 2.2 goals, Lipno 1.2 (combined 3.4), and recent xG 1.54 vs 1.19 confirm the home side’s increased offensive potential. Season stats show Over 1.5 in 69% of Elana’s matches and 100% of Lipno’s, so I assess Over 1.5 probability at 88% vs 12% for Under. Signals for the 2.5 line are mixed: seasonally Elana has 38% of games over 2.5, Lipno 67%, but in the last 5 matches both teams recorded 60% of games over 2.5, hence Over 2.5 around 60%. I rate Over 3.5 lower at about 35%, since season percentages are 31% for Elana and 50% for Lipno, and goal averages and xG suggest a distribution around 3–3.5 goals rather than four or more. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (selection: Over at 1.5), as the expected 3.10 goals, recent 3.4 average and 69% vs 100% for Over1.5 provide a clear edge.

Elana Toruń is showing clearly superior form: over the last 5 matches the home side average 2.0 points per game versus Lipno’s 0.4, and have won 60% of those fixtures while the visitors have no wins (0%). At half-time Elana led in 60% of their last 5 matches and score an average of 1.0 goals by the break versus 0.6 for their opponents, which strongly supports a home lead at HT. In the second half Lipno concedes on average 1.55 goals after the break and have a negative second-half goal difference (-10), whereas Elana concedes only 0.54 and have a positive second-half difference (+1), so the hosts are more likely to hold the lead and win. On that basis the most probable scenario is 1/1 (Elana leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time) at approximately 45%, alternatively a draw at the break and a home win (X/1) is possible at about 20%.