Elana Toruń vs Unia Swarzędz: match statistics

Unia Swarzędz holds a clear edge based on form — the visitors collected 11 points in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws) and scored 9 goals, while Elana has only 1 point in that period (0-1-4) and 4 goals, averaging 2.2 vs 0.2 points per game. Over the season Elana at home averages 1.5 goals and xG 1.7 with 5.15 shots on target, whereas Unia away scores 1.33 goals and has xG 1.47 with 3.91 shots on target — the hosts create more chances, but that hasn’t translated into recent results. Defensively Unia is more reliable: they concede 1.2 goals away and keep 33% clean sheets, while Elana at home concedes 1.43 goals and has 21% clean sheets. The gap is also evident over the last 5 matches in terms of defense and efficiency — Elana conceded 13 goals in five games, Unia only 4, which strongly favors the visitors. Considering these numbers and trends, I give Unia the greater chances, despite Elana’s better xG and shots figures at home.

I back BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 58% vs 42% because xG data and recent form favor both teams scoring. Averaged xG values — Elana xG_for 1.64 vs Unia xG_against 1.39 (avg ≈1.52) and Unia xG_for 1.47 vs Elana xG_against 1.15 (≈1.31) — translate to roughly a 78% chance that the home side will score and about a 73% chance the away side will score, which under independence yields ~57% for BTTS. In the last 5 matches both teams registered BTTS in 60% of cases, and goal stats show Elana scored 4 and conceded 13 goals (avg 0.8 and 2.6), while Unia scored 9 and conceded 4 (1.8 and 0.8), which significantly increases Unia’s scoring probability. Counter signals are seasonal BTTS rates of only 38% and 40% and the fact Elana failed to score in 56% of season matches; however, higher xG and the large number of goals conceded by Elana in the last 5 fixtures push me toward the Yes option.

The match leans towards goals: the league average is 2.93 goals, and the percentage of matches with at least one goal is 81% for Elana and 93% for Unia. In the last 5 fixtures Elana averaged 0.8 scored and conceded 2.6 (total 4:13), while Unia averaged 1.8 scored and conceded 0.8 (9:4), indicating a weaker Elana defense and stronger Unia attack. xG in the last 5 matches is 1.04 for Elana and 1.40 for Unia; season offensive xG are 1.64 (Elana) and 1.47 (Unia), and opponent xG allowed are 1.15 and 1.39; combining these figures I estimate 0.95 goals for Elana and 1.65 for Unia (sum 2.60). Based on this I assign a high probability to Over 1.5 (80%) and a moderate probability to Over 2.5 (58%), while Over 3.5 looks less likely (30%). The best pick is Over 1.5, because the expected total of 2.60 is well above 1.5, and seasonal and recent indicators (Over1.5: Elana 56%, Unia 67%; in last 5: Over2.5 Elana 80%, Unia 60%) support the minimum-two-goal scenario.

Unia Swarzędz shows a clear advantage in the first half: the visitors led at the break in 46% of matches this season and in 60% of their last 5 appearances, while Elana did not lead at the break in their last 5 matches (0%), which strongly favors the visitors in the first 45 minutes. Average goals at half-time are 0.44 for Elana and 0.77 for Unia; accounting for average half-time concessions (0.62 and 0.50) the estimated expected half-time goals are about 1.16 (0.53 for the home side and 0.63 for the visitors), so typical HT scores are 0-1 or 1-1. Over the full match Unia is in better form: season-long points per game are 1.47 for the visitors versus 1.19 for Elana, and in the last 5 matches Unia won 60% of fixtures while Elana has 0% wins, increasing the probability of a final success for the visitors. Given Unia’s frequent leads at the break (46% season, 60% in last 5) and Unia’s low average half-time concessions (0.2 in the last 5), the most likely scenario is 2/2 (36%). The second and third scenarios are X/2 (16%) and X/X (12%) — X/2 because the home side has 50% draws at half-time this season, and additionally xG 1.64 (Elana) versus 1.47 (Unia) and shot conversion 9% versus 10% indicate that Elana creates chances, but current form favors Unia maintaining their lead.