Elana Toruń vs Wda Świecie: match statistics

Elana Toruń is the clear favorite in this match: at home they average 1.9 goals per game with an xG of 1.91, whereas Wda Świecie score only 0.83 goals away with an xG of 1.20. The hosts create significantly more chances — 16.11 shots and 6.0 shots on target per home game versus 9.73 shots and 2.91 on target for the visitors — and also exhibit higher shooting efficiency: 12% vs 8%. Defensively, Elana concedes 1.4 goals on average at home (xG against 1.11), while Wda concedes 1.83 goals away (xG against 1.62) and additionally fail to score in 42% of away matches compared with Elana’s 10% FTS at home. Over the last five matches Elana scored 11 goals and averaged 2.0 points per game, while Wda scored 8 goals and averaged 1.8 points per game; moreover the home goal difference for Elana is +5 versus Wda’s -12 away, confirming the home advantage and pointing towards a home victory.

Both teams have a season BTTS rate of 42%, but in the last 5 matches this rose to 60% for both, indicating a short-term tendency toward both teams scoring. xG analysis shows expected goals of about 1.57 for Elana (average of xG_for_home 1.52 and xG_against_away 1.62) and 1.48 for Wda (average of xG_for_away 1.20 and xG_against_home 1.76), so both sides generate over 1.4 xG per match. A counterargument is the visitors’ low season scoring efficiency: only 0.83 goals per game and just 2.91 shots on target on average, plus a high league clean sheet rate of 55%, which reduces BTTS probability. Considering the strong signal from the last 5 matches (60%), xG >1 for both and the fact that the home side have 42 goals scored this season (1.5 per game) with 28 conceded, I predict BTTS as more likely and assign 60% to 'BTTS - Yes' versus 40% to 'No Goal'.

Elana scores on average 1.50 goals per match, Wda 0.83; their xG is 1.52 (Elana) and 1.20 (Wda), while xG conceded is 1.76 (Elana) and 1.62 (Wda), yielding estimated goals of 1.57 for the home side and 1.48 for the visitors, total 3.05. This season Over 1.5 has occurred in 83% of Elana’s matches and 67% of Wda’s games, and the league average is 2.96 goals per match, so I rate Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (78%). Elana averages 11.82 shots and 5.09 on target with a conversion rate of 14%, Wda has 9.73 shots and 2.91 on target with a conversion of 8%, which favors the home side and a higher number of goal-scoring opportunities. On the 2.5 line, season Over is 58% (Elana) and 50% (Wda), and in the last 5 matches Elana had 80% Over 2.5 versus 40% for Wda, hence a moderate 60% for Over 2.5. Over 3.5 is less likely: season rates are 25% (Elana) and 33% (Wda), and the projected total of 3.05 suggests only about a 33% chance of 4+ goals.

The most likely scenario is Elana leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1). The home side led at the break in 4 matches (44%) and in their last 5 matches they were leading at half-time in 60% of cases, averaging 1.44 points gained by half-time versus 0.67 for the visitors. Elana’s attack looks stronger statistically: 1.5 goals per game on average versus Wda’s 0.83, xG 1.52 versus 1.20, 5.09 shots on target versus 2.91 and a conversion rate of 14% versus 8%, which increases the chance of scoring in the first half and maintaining a lead. Wda concedes 1.83 goals per game on average and has a negative second-half goal balance (-6), which weighs on their chances after the break; at the same time the visitors draw at half-time in 67% of cases, hence notable shares for X/X and X/1 scenarios. Based on this I assigned the highest probability to 1/1 (37%), with lower shares for half-time draws and potential turnarounds after the break (X/X 20%, X/1 15%).