Elversberg vs Preußen Münster: match statistics

Elversberg is the favorite: they sit 2nd with 17 wins and 61 goals this season, while Preußen Münster are 18th with 6 wins and 38 goals. At home the hosts average 2.0 goals scored and concede 0.88 goals with a 44% clean sheet rate, whereas the visitors on the road average 1.0 goal scored and concede 2.0 goals with only 13% clean sheets. The quality of chances is confirmed by xG: Elversberg have home xG of 1.79 versus Münster’s away xG of 1.14, with xG against of 1.16 and 1.77 respectively, indicating a home advantage in creating and limiting high-quality chances. Additionally Elversberg average 15.94 shots and 5.5 shots on target per home match with a conversion rate of 13%, while Münster average 10.5 shots and 3.44 on target with a 10% conversion; the visitors are without a win in their last 5 matches (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses) and average 0.6 points per game versus the hosts’ 1.4. Given a 63% home win rate versus the guests’ 19% away win rate and a home goal difference of +18 vs the visitors’ -16 away, I forecast an Elversberg victory.

BTTS looks like a strong scenario: the home side has a seasonal BTTS rate of 82%, the visitors 63%, versus a league average of 60%, which immediately raises the likelihood of Goal/Goal. Additionally, in the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS at 80% (4/5), and over that period Elversberg averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Preußen Münster averaged 1.4 scored and 2.2 conceded — both sides regularly find the net. xG also supports BTTS: the hosts have an offensive xG of 1.45 against Münster’s conceded xG of 1.77, and the visitors have xG 1.14 against the hosts’ conceded xG 1.5 — both values indicate expected goals around 1.1–1.8 for each team. Clean sheets are rare (12% for hosts, 13% for visitors), and seasonal goals conceded averages are 1.53 and 2.0, which further reduce the chances of a No Goal outcome. Considering the 82%/63% seasonal BTTS, 80% in the last 5 matches, and the high xG and goals conceded figures, I favor the 'BTTS - Yes' option and estimate the probability of BTTS at about 78%.

Statistical analysis indicates high goal potential: Elversberg averages 1.29 goals per match, Preußen Münster 1.00, and average xG suggests about 1.61 for the home side (average of xG_for_home 1.45 and xG_against_away 1.77) and 1.32 for the visitors (average of xG_for_away 1.14 and xG_against_home 1.50), yielding total xG ≈2.93. In the last 5 matches Elversberg scored 2.6 goals on average and all 5 fixtures exceeded 2.5 goals (100%), while Preußen scored 1.4 goals on average in their last 5 with 60% of matches over 2.5. Seasonal indicators confirm this: over 2.5 occurred in 59% of Elversberg’s matches and 63% of Preußen’s matches, and both teams have high BTTS rates — 82% for the home side and 63% for the visitors. Therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (probability 86%), with secondary support for Over 2.5 (66%); Over 3.5 appears less likely (33%) and less value. Expected goals: home 1.61, away 1.32, total ≈2.93, which justifies choosing a line above 1.5.

Based on the provided data the strongest signal is a half-time draw with an Elversberg victory at full-time (X/1); I assign it the highest probability of 30%. In the last 5 matches Elversberg led at the break in 60% of cases (3 of 5), while Preußen Münster did not lead in any of their matches in the same period (0%), indicating a home-side advantage in the early phases. The second half clearly favors the hosts: Elversberg scored 5 goals in minutes 46–60, whereas Münster conceded 8 goals in that interval; on average the home side scores 0.82 goals after the break, and the away side concedes 1.06 in second halves. Half-time signals are mixed, however, because 82% of Elversberg’s matches featured at least one goal before the break, and in their last 5 games the hosts had goals at half-time in 100% of cases, while opponents were level at the break in 63% of their matches — this supports the half-time draw scenario. Additionally, xG indicates a weaker away defence (average xG against 1.77 versus 1.50 for the hosts), a higher number of shots on target for Elversberg (4.53 versus 3.44), and better recent points form for Elversberg over the last 5 matches (1.4 points average versus 0.6), all corroborating that the half-time draw is most likely to be overturned in Elversberg’s favour after the break.