Emmen vs Volendam: match statistics

Emmen have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Volendam have suffered 3 defeats over the same period and lost both of their away fixtures so far. At home, the hosts average 2 goals per match, 16 shots and 7 shots on target, clearly outperforming Volendam’s away averages of 1 goal, 6.5 shots and 2.5 shots on target. The difference in the quality of chances created is reflected in Emmen’s xG of 1.75 compared with just 0.84 for the visitors, who have failed to score in 50% of their away matches. Volendam’s defence concedes an average of 2 goals away from home and allows opponents an xG of 1.67, while Emmen have conceded just 0.5 goals per home match and kept a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances. The hosts’ advantage in form, attacking intensity and defensive stability strongly supports an Emmen win.

Emmen have very strong attacking credentials at home: they score an average of 4.5 goals, create 2.15 xG and record 7 shots on target per match, while Volendam concede an average of 2.0 goals away from home and have kept no clean sheets. However, the biggest question mark for BTTS is the visitors’ attacking efficiency on the road, where they score just 1.0 goal per game, generate only 0.84 xG and average 2.5 shots on target. Emmen’s home defence concedes an average of 0.5 goals and has kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches, while Volendam have failed to score in 50% of their away fixtures. Although Volendam’s last five matches produced an average of 2.4 goals scored, their xG was only 1.27, clearly below Emmen’s 2.08. The league has a high BTTS rate of 78%, but the home advantage and limited away attacking potential provide slightly stronger support for a BTTS - No scenario, meaning that at least one team is expected to fail to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither side scores.

Emmen have very strong attacking numbers at home: they average 2.15 xG, 18.5 shots and 7.0 shots on target per match, while Volendam allow 1.67 xG away from home. The hosts have scored an average of 4.5 goals at home, while the last five matches involving each team produced an average of 4.0 goals in Emmen games and 4.0 in Volendam games, respectively. Volendam average only 1.0 goal scored away from home, but their current average of 2.4 goals across their last five matches, combined with the 1.8 goals Emmen have conceded during this period, increases the visitors' chances of contributing to the scoreline. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Emmen's last five matches and 80% of Volendam's matches, while the league average is a high 3.85 goals. However, the strongest selection remains Over 1.5 goals, as Emmen's attacking advantage and both teams' high-scoring profiles significantly reduce the likelihood of a one-goal-or-fewer scenario.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Emmen win in the match, as the hosts were level at the break in 80% of their last five games and went on to win four of those five matches. Emmen are clearly improving after the interval: in their last five appearances, they have averaged 1.6 goals after half-time and won the second half in 80% of cases. Full-season home data also favour the hosts, who average 4.5 goals scored, concede only 0.5, and have won both matches played. Volendam do have a better recent first-half record, averaging 1.25 goals scored compared with Emmen’s 0.6; however, they average just 1.0 goal away from home, concede 2.0, and have lost all of their matches so far. Emmen’s advantage in the quality of chances created, reflected in an xG of 2.15 versus Volendam’s 0.84 and 7.0 shots on target compared with 2.5, should ultimately decide the match in their favour during the closing stages. The recommended HT/FT outcome is X/2.