Empoli vs Arezzo: match statistics

Empoli sit higher in the table, in 8th place compared with Arezzo’s 15th, and have averaged 1.6 points per match over their last five games, compared with 1.2 for their opponents. The hosts won their only home match to date, kept a clean sheet, and averaged 5 shots on target, while Arezzo concede as many as 3 goals per away game. The visitors’ defense looks particularly vulnerable: they have conceded 9 goals in three league matches and 10 in their last five. Arezzo also create lower-quality chances away from home, with an average xG of 0.99 compared with Empoli’s 1.04, and have failed to score in 50% of their away matches. Although Empoli’s xG against stands at 1.66, suggesting that the visitors could create chances, the hosts’ defensive advantage and Arezzo’s poor away scoring record point to an Empoli win.

The signal for both teams to score is primarily supported by weak defensive performances: Empoli concede an average of 3.0 goals at home, while Arezzo also concede 3.0 away from home. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, whereas Empoli score an average of 2.0 goals at home and Arezzo score 1.0 away. The hosts create significantly more chances, as confirmed by an xG of 1.67 and an average of 5.0 shots on target, compared with Arezzo’s 0.99 xG and 2.0 shots on target. In their last five matches, Empoli recorded BTTS in 60% of games, while Arezzo did so in 40%; however, the visitors still averaged 1.2 goals from 1.36 xG. The main risk to this selection is that Arezzo have failed to score in 50% of their matches this season. Nevertheless, the 0% clean-sheet rate for both sides and their defensive vulnerability provide a slight edge towards BTTS - Yes.

The strongest signal points to at least two goals, as both teams have gone over the 1.5 line in 100% of their matches so far this season. Empoli have averaged 1.67 xG and 5 shots on target per home game, while Arezzo have conceded an average of 3.0 goals away from home, with 1.72 xG allowed to their opponents. Neither defence has kept a single clean sheet, further increasing the likelihood of goals at both ends. Caution around the 2.5 line is warranted due to Empoli’s recent form: their last 5 matches have produced an average of 2.0 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in just 20% of them. The projected total of 2.48 goals gives a clearer edge to Over 1.5 than to the more demanding lines.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Empoli victory at full-time (X/1), as the hosts have been level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches, while Arezzo have been trailing at that stage in as many as 60% of cases. Both teams have scored just 0.2 goals per game in the first half, clearly increasing the likelihood of a cautious, often goalless opening. After the break, Empoli score an average of 0.8 goals, whereas Arezzo concede 1.4, and the hosts also have a higher average xG: 1.67 compared with 0.99. Empoli’s advantage is further supported by their better recent points form, averaging 1.6 points per match compared with the opponents’ 1.2, although the hosts’ weak defence, with an average xG conceded of 1.99, leaves a significant risk of a draw or an away win.