Empoli vs Avellino: match statistics

Empoli has a clear advantage in chance creation at home: on average 14.39 shots of which 4.67 are on target and 1.5 goals per match with xG 1.57, versus 8.06 shots, 2.39 on target and 0.94 goals away for Avellino (xG 0.93). Defensively the hosts concede on average 1.17 goals at home (xG against 1.17), while Avellino concedes 1.61 goals on the road (xG against 1.67), indicating weaker resilience from the visitors. The difference in finishing is significant: Empoli fail to score in only 11% of home matches, whereas Avellino fail to score in 39% of away matches, despite a slightly higher conversion rate 12% vs 10%. On the other hand Empoli record as many as 61% draws in home matches and over the last 5 fixtures they average only 0.8 points versus 1.4 for Avellino, which limits confidence in a win. Considering Empoli’s advantage in xG (1.57 vs 0.93), number of shots (14.39 vs 8.06) and the hosts’ low FTS (11% vs 39%), I predict a home victory.

Empoli has a season BTTS rate of 56% versus Avellino's 50% and a 54% league average, which immediately favors a Goal/Goal scenario. At home Empoli averages 1.39 goals (xG 1.34) and records 4.28 shots on target, while Avellino away concedes xG 1.67 and loses on average 1.61 goals, so the hosts have a realistic chance to score. Avellino scores only 0.94 goals seasonally (xG 0.93), but in the last 5 matches they averaged 1.2 goals with xG 1.16, suggesting an offensive uptick and a possibility of an away goal. Empoli concedes 1.39 goals at home and has 28% clean sheets, while Avellino keeps a clean sheet in just 11% of away games, so statistically the probability of goals at both ends is higher than a No Goal outcome. Considering the season 56%/50% BTTS, the 54% league figure and signals from xG and shot numbers, I assess BTTS - Yes at 60% vs 40% No Goal.

The forecast based on xG and goal averages indicates 1.34 xG for Empoli and 0.93 xG for Avellino, totaling 2.27 expected goals. Empoli creates more chances: on average 11.72 shots and 4.28 on target per match versus 8.06 shots and 2.39 on target for Avellino, which increases the hosts’ scoring potential. This season Empoli had Over 1.5 in 78% of home games and Avellino in 83% of away matches, so I rate Over 1.5 highly (88%). However, the combined xG of 2.27, season Over 2.5: 56% (Empoli) vs 39% (Avellino), and only 20% of matches over 2.5 in the last 5 fixtures for each team suggest an advantage for Under 2.5 (58%). Over 3.5 is unlikely (18%) due to the low total xG and the fact that Avellino have only 17% of season matches above 3.5.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and an Empoli win at full-time (X/1), because the home team drew at half-time in 9 matches (50%) and the visitors in 10 (56%), so a half-time draw is common. Empoli, however, has the edge in chance creation: average xG 1.34 versus Avellino’s 0.93 and 4.28 shots on target versus 2.39 for the visitors, as well as a clearly better average goals after the break 0.83 versus 0.44. The hosts led at the break in 7 matches (39%) and as many as 89% of their home games feature at least one goal after half-time, which suggests Empoli often decides the outcome in the second 45 minutes. Therefore I assign X/1 a 36% probability, X/X 20% and 1/1 15%, with the remaining combinations totaling 29%.