Empoli vs Cremonese: match statistics

Cremonese are showing significantly better recent form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches while averaging 1.6 goals per game. Empoli remain unbeaten over the same period, but drew 4 of those 5 matches, and their only victory translates into an average of 1.4 points per game compared with Cremonese’s 2.4. The visitors have conceded just 4 goals in their last five appearances, while the hosts have allowed 5, giving Cremonese a slight defensive edge as well. Empoli have scored 6 goals, 2 fewer than their opponents, so with the teams occupying similar positions in the table—10th and 9th—a narrow away win appears more likely.

The data from the last five matches paints a mixed picture: Empoli had BTTS in 80% of their games, while Cremonese recorded it in only 20%. Cremonese are in very good form, scoring 8 goals in five matches and conceding an average of just 0.8 goals, which strengthens the clean sheet expected scenario. Empoli averaged 1.2 goals, while their xG stood at 1.15 against opponents’ xG of 1.33, meaning the hosts do not have a clear advantage in chance creation. The visitors averaged 0.97 xG and allowed opponents 0.96 xG, so the match could be decided by one clinical side. The strongest signal is Cremonese’s solid defence and the low BTTS rate in their recent appearances, making it more likely that at least one team will fail to score. This supports BTTS - No / No Goal.

The available sample of the last five matches points to a moderate number of goals: Empoli averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Cremonese scored 1.6 goals and conceded just 0.8. In total, Empoli’s matches produced an average of 2.2 goals during this period, compared with 2.4 in Cremonese’s matches, supporting a projection of around 2.27 goals. Only 20% of Empoli’s and 40% of Cremonese’s recent matches went Over 2.5 goals, while Cremonese’s defensive xG stands at 0.96, compared with 1.33 for Empoli. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as this bet would only lose if at least four goals were scored—something that current results and the quality of chances created do not suggest.

Cremonese are showing clearly better form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding just 0.8, while Empoli have recorded only 1 win. The visitors were leading at the break in 80% of those matches, compared with 40% for Empoli, and their first-half goal difference stood at +3 versus +1 for the hosts. Cremonese’s defence was particularly solid before half-time, keeping a clean sheet in 80% of their last five first halves and conceding an average of just 0.2 goals in them. Empoli drew 4 of their last 5 matches, so the X/2 HT/FT outcome remains a realistic alternative; however, Cremonese’s superior efficiency and 80% win rate provide the strongest case for the visitors to lead at the break and secure the victory at full-time.