Energie Cottbus vs Greuther Fürth: match statistics

Energie Cottbus have the home advantage: they won their only home match so far, scoring 3 goals, while Greuther Fürth drew their only away fixture. The hosts are significantly more efficient at home, averaging 3 goals with a 25% shot conversion rate, whereas the visitors score just 1 goal on average away from home and convert 7% of their attempts. Fürth do create more chances, averaging 15 shots and 7 on target compared with Cottbus’ 12 and 4, which keeps the draw or an away win a realistic possibility. The hosts’ defense allows opponents a high xG of 2.83, higher than Fürth’s 2.15 away from home, but recent form still marginally favors Cottbus: 2 wins in 5 matches and 1.2 points per game compared with the visitors’ 1 win and 0.8 points per game. Both teams have conceded in every match played so far in the respective role, making an open game ending in a home win the most likely outcome.

The signal for both teams to score is clear: in the season data, both Energie Cottbus and Greuther Fürth recorded BTTS at 100%, with neither team keeping a clean sheet. Cottbus conceded an average of as many as 4.0 goals, while Fürth conceded 1.0, which supports the possibility of both sides finding the net. The last five matches are slightly less conclusive, with BTTS at 40% for the hosts and 60% for the visitors; however, both teams scored 1.2 goals per match. Their attacking potential is supported by the xG figures: Fürth create an average of 1.66 xG, while Cottbus record 1.34, alongside a high opponents' xG of 2.06 for the hosts. Greuther Fürth average 7 shots on target, compared with 6 for Cottbus, so the most likely scenario remains one in which each team scores at least one goal.

The match profile points to a high number of chances, as Energie Cottbus average 1.62 xG, while Greuther Fürth average 1.64 xG. The defenses allow even more: the hosts concede an average of 1.85 xG to opponents, while the visitors allow as much as 2.15 xG, raising the projected total to 3.25 goals. In their last five matches, both teams scored 1.2 goals per game, but Cottbus conceded 2.0, while Fürth conceded 1.6 goals per match. Their attacking potential is also supported by averages of 14 and 15 shots, with 6 and 7 shots on target respectively. Over 1.5 is the strongest selection, as both teams have scored and conceded at least one goal in 100% of their matches so far, while the line requires only two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 40% of their last five matches, while the visitors did so in as many as 60%. During this period, both teams scored an identical average of 0.6 goals before half-time, while Cottbus conceded an average of 1.0 goal in the first halves and Fürth 0.6. The difference in attacking potential is minimal: average xG stands at 1.62 for the hosts and 1.64 for the visitors, while the two teams average 14 and 15 shots per match, respectively. Both defences leave room for goals, with Cottbus conceding 2.0 goals per game in their last five matches and Fürth 1.6, increasing the likelihood of the score being level after the break. However, neither team has a clear advantage in terms of results—the hosts have won 2 of their last 5 matches, while the visitors have won only 1 of 5—so a share of the points after an evenly contested first half is the most likely outcome.