Entebbe UPPC vs Police Uganda: match statistics

Entebbe UPPC have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 7 goals in the process, while Police Uganda have recorded 2 wins and scored 5 goals. The hosts create chances worth 1.72 xG per match at home, while the visitors allow chances worth 1.70 xG away from home, giving Entebbe an opportunity to break down their opponents' defence. Police Uganda can also pose a threat: away from home, they average 1.92 xG and 6.5 shots on target, against 1.23 xG conceded by the hosts at home. The visitors also have the edge in defensive numbers, conceding just 0.5 goals per away match compared with Entebbe's 1.0 at home. The hosts' better finishing across their last five matches gives them a slight advantage, but the numbers point to a closely contested game.

In the teams’ last 5 matches, both teams scored in only 20% of games, which clearly supports the BTTS - No pick. This means at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily imply a 0-0 draw. Entebbe UPPC conceded an average of 0.4 goals during this period, while Police Uganda conceded 0.6, meaning both defences have rarely been breached. At home, the hosts averaged 0.5 goals scored, while the visitors averaged 1.0 away from home; additionally, each team failed to score in 50% of those matches. The main risk to this selection comes from xG figures of 1.42 for the hosts and 1.92 for the visitors, which suggest more chances than their goal returns indicate. Even so, the league-wide rate of matches in which both teams score is 38%, making it more likely that at least one team will fail to find the net.

In their last five matches, Entebbe UPPC averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, while Police Uganda averaged 1.0 scored and 0.6 conceded, pointing to a low-scoring game. In addition, 100% of both teams’ matches so far have finished with Under 3.5 goals, although this trend should be treated with caution given the small sample size. Higher season xG figures—1.42 for the hosts and 1.92 for the visitors—indicate attacking potential, so the forecast does not anticipate an extremely low score. With 2.15 total goals expected and a league average of 2.03, Under 3.5 goals remains the strongest pick, with an estimated probability of 83%.

In both of the hosts’ home matches to date and both of the visitors’ away matches, the score was 0–0 at half-time, pointing to a balanced first half. Entebbe UPPC have been level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, while Police Uganda have done so in 80%, making the draw the strongest signal for this part of the game. The hosts have the better chance of settling the contest after the break: they have won 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for the visitors, scoring an average of 1.4 goals against 1.0. Over the same period, Entebbe conceded an average of 0.2 goals after half-time, while Police conceded 0.6, supporting a home win after a level first half. The visitors’ higher xG—1.92 compared with the hosts’ 1.42—is a risk factor, however, so a draw or a Police win after the break also remains a meaningful possibility.