Erzgebirge Aue vs Hoffenheim II: match statistics
Erzgebirge Aue vs Hoffenheim II: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Erzgebirge Aue played Hoffenheim II in 3. Liga (Germany). The match was played on 4 April 2026. Final score: 3:5.
Current form
Erzgebirge Aue: 0-0-5, 0.00 points/match. Hoffenheim II: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Erzgebirge Aue scores 1.13 and concedes 1.80 goals per match. Hoffenheim II scores 1.77 and concedes 1.80. League average: 3.13 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Erzgebirge Aue 63%, Hoffenheim II 73%. Over 2.5: Erzgebirge Aue 67%, Hoffenheim II 73%. League level: BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
Hoffenheim II has higher xG: 1.68 vs 1.49. Erzgebirge Aue: 12.4 shots per match, Hoffenheim II: 13.6.
Match halves
Erzgebirge Aue: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.60. Hoffenheim II: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.87.
Goals by minute
Erzgebirge Aue: 31-45+ (9 goals). Hoffenheim II: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
3. Liga: 3.13 goals per match, BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the away win (2). Hoffenheim II holds the offensive edge: they average 1.86 goals away with 5.5 shots on target and a 14% conversion rate, while Erzgebirge Aue at home score 1.27 with 4.6 shots on target and a 9% conversion. Aue is slightly superior defensively at home, conceding 1.6 goals per game versus Hoffenheim’s 1.93 away and recording 33% clean sheets compared to the opponent’s 14%. xG indicates parity in chance quality (1.63 xG for Aue at home vs 1.61 xG for Hoffenheim away), suggesting conversion will be decisive. Given both teams’ poor form over the last 5 matches (0.6 points per game, 1 win and 4 losses each), I assign probabilities: 45% away win, 30% home win, 25% draw.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show a high season BTTS rate: Erzgebirge Aue 75% and Hoffenheim II 71%, both above the league average of 64%. In the last 5 matches Aue has BTTS at 80% and Hoffenheim II 60%, while clean sheet percentages are only 19% for Aue and 14% for Hoffenheim II (league average 43%), indicating a low probability of either side keeping a clean sheet. Offensive and defensive metrics also point to a goal-heavy game: attacking xG 1.74 (Aue) vs 1.61 (Hoffenheim II), xG against 1.48 vs 1.81 and average shots on target 5.94 vs 5.5, meaning both teams create chances and have defensive vulnerabilities. In the last 5 matches Aue scored 15 goals (avg 3.0) and conceded 11 (2.2), while Hoffenheim II scored 6 (1.2) and conceded 9 (1.8), which together favor a both-teams-to-score scenario. Considering the 75%/71% season BTTS, low clean sheet rates 19%/14% and recent form 80%/60%, I rate BTTS - Yes at 82% vs 18%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The combined xG for both teams is around 3.35 (Erzgebirge Aue attacking xG 1.74 + Hoffenheim II attacking xG 1.61), while xG against is 1.48 (Aue) and 1.81 (Hoffenheim II), yielding an estimated ~1.78 goals for the home side and ~1.55 for the away side (total ~3.33). Seasonal goal averages are 1.69 (Aue) and 1.86 (Hoffenheim II), with high BTTS rates: 75% for Aue and 71% for Hoffenheim II, so both teams regularly score and concede. Over 1.5 occurs in 81% of Aue’s home matches and 86% of Hoffenheim II’s away matches, while Over 2.5 is 63%/86% — additionally Aue have averaged 3.0 goals scored and 2.2 conceded (15:11) in their last 5 matches, with 100% Over 2.5 in that period. Considering these specific figures and the estimated xG=3.33, the strongest signal from the data is to play Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A half-time draw followed by an away win (X/2) appears most justified. Erzgebirge Aue were level at the break in 63% of their home matches, while Hoffenheim II recorded a halftime draw in 29% of away fixtures — averaging these values yields roughly a 46% chance of a draw after 45 minutes, which is the strongest HT signal. In the second half Hoffenheim II perform better: average second-half points are 1.21 for the visitors versus 1.06 for the hosts, and the visitors score on average 0.93 goals after the break compared to 0.81 for the hosts, favoring a turnaround. Additionally the visitors have a higher seasonal goals-per-game average (1.86 vs 1.69) and a higher win rate (36% vs 31%), which increases the likelihood of a Hoffenheim II full-time victory following a halftime draw. For these reasons I treat X/2 as the strongest signal available from the data.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Erzgebirge Aue | Hoffenheim II | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Hoffenheim II is 57% better for: goals scored per match.
1.13 goals / match - Erzgebirge Aue · 1.77 goals / match - Hoffenheim II
Erzgebirge Aue scores in 73% of matches (22 of 30 matches), while Hoffenheim II keeps a clean sheet in 17% (5 of 30 matches).
Hoffenheim II scores in 87% of matches (26 of 30 matches), while Erzgebirge Aue keeps a clean sheet in 23% (7 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Erzgebirge Aue
Over / Under - Hoffenheim II
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Hoffenheim II is 6% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.1 pts / match - Erzgebirge Aue · 1.17 pts / match - Hoffenheim II
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Erzgebirge Aue - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 17%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Hoffenheim II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 0% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Erzgebirge Aue
Hoffenheim II
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (3. Liga).
Teams vs league
| Erzgebirge Aue | Liga | Hoffenheim II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.93 | 3.13 | ▲ 3.57 |
| Both teams scored | • 63% | 64% | ▲ 73% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 64% | ▲ 73% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 23% | 21% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 76% | ▲ 83% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 80% | 83% | ▼ 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Erzgebirge Aue 0 - 1 - 0 Hoffenheim II. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Erzgebirge Aue vs Hoffenheim II?
The 3. Liga match finished Erzgebirge Aue 3:5 Hoffenheim II. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Erzgebirge Aue vs Hoffenheim II?
Erzgebirge Aue score 1.13 goals per game on average and Hoffenheim II 1.77. The 3. Liga average is 3.13 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Erzgebirge Aue's matches and 73% of Hoffenheim II's.
What form are Erzgebirge Aue and Hoffenheim II in?
Over the last 5 games Erzgebirge Aue have a 0-0-5 record (0.00 points per game) and Hoffenheim II 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Erzgebirge Aue vs Hoffenheim II?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Erzgebirge Aue vs Hoffenheim II: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.