Erzgebirge Aue vs Ulm: match statistics
Erzgebirge Aue has a clear advantage in this match, being the host and presenting solid home form. The hosts win 40% of matches at home and note a positive goal difference (+3) at their own stadium, which contrasts with Ulm's fatal disposition away. The guests lose as many as 70% of away matches, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per match and holding a negative goal difference of -12. The recent form of both teams also speaks for the hosts - Aue earned 1 point per match in the last 5 meetings, while Ulm just 0.6 points. The xG values show that Aue creates more chances at home (1.77) than Ulm away (1.35), which further confirms the hosts' advantage. Although Aue is not in peak form, Ulm's weakness in away matches and the home field advantage should decide a victory for the hosts.
Erzgebirge Aue vs Ulm: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Erzgebirge Aue played Ulm in 3. Liga (Germany). The match was played on 24 January 2026. Final score: 0:3.
Current form
Erzgebirge Aue: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Ulm: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Erzgebirge Aue scores 1.20 and concedes 1.50 goals per match. Ulm scores 1.30 and concedes 2.25. League average: 3.14 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Erzgebirge Aue 55%, Ulm 70%. Over 2.5: Erzgebirge Aue 55%, Ulm 75%. League level: BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Erzgebirge Aue has higher xG: 1.57 vs 1.35. Erzgebirge Aue: 13.1 shots per match, Ulm: 10.9.
Match halves
Erzgebirge Aue: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.70. Ulm: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
Erzgebirge Aue: 76-90+ (7 goals). Ulm: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
3. Liga: 3.14 goals per match, BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Erzgebirge Aue has a clear advantage in this match, being the host and presenting solid home form. The hosts win 40% of matches at home and note a positive goal difference (+3) at their own stadium, which contrasts with Ulm's fatal disposition away. The guests lose as many as 70% of away matches, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per match and holding a negative goal difference of -12. The recent form of both teams also speaks for the hosts - Aue earned 1 point per match in the last 5 meetings, while Ulm just 0.6 points. The xG values show that Aue creates more chances at home (1.77) than Ulm away (1.35), which further confirms the hosts' advantage. Although Aue is not in peak form, Ulm's weakness in away matches and the home field advantage should decide a victory for the hosts.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Erzgebirge Aue | Ulm | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Erzgebirge Aue is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Erzgebirge Aue · 0.6 pts / match - Ulm
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ulm is 8% better for: goals scored per match.
1.2 goals / match - Erzgebirge Aue · 1.3 goals / match - Ulm
Erzgebirge Aue is 50% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.5 goals / match - Erzgebirge Aue · 2.25 goals / match - Ulm
Erzgebirge Aue scores in 70% of matches (14 of 20 matches), while Ulm keeps a clean sheet in 10% (2 of 20 matches).
Ulm scores in 80% of matches (16 of 20 matches), while Erzgebirge Aue keeps a clean sheet in 30% (6 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Erzgebirge Aue
Over / Under - Ulm
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Erzgebirge Aue is 47% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.1 pts / match - Erzgebirge Aue · 0.75 pts / match - Ulm
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Erzgebirge Aue - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ulm - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Erzgebirge Aue
Ulm
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (3. Liga).
Teams vs league
| Erzgebirge Aue | Liga | Ulm | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.70 | 3.14 | ▲ 3.55 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 55% | 63% | ▲ 70% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 55% | 63% | ▲ 75% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 30% | 22% | ▼ 10% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 75% | ▲ 85% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 84% | ▼ 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Erzgebirge Aue 0 - 0 - 1 Ulm. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Erzgebirge Aue vs Ulm?
The 3. Liga match finished Erzgebirge Aue 0:3 Ulm. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Erzgebirge Aue vs Ulm?
Erzgebirge Aue score 1.20 goals per game on average and Ulm 1.30. The 3. Liga average is 3.14 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Erzgebirge Aue's matches and 70% of Ulm's.
What form are Erzgebirge Aue and Ulm in?
Over the last 5 games Erzgebirge Aue have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Ulm 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Erzgebirge Aue vs Ulm?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.